{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "b16d90e2-f8ff-46d5-90a2-8ed3d17da962",
    "symbol": "UQLTD",
    "name": "UBS Factor MSCI USA Quality Screened UCITS ETF USD dis",
    "exchange": "EBS",
    "country": "CH",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^SSMI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 92.809,
    "architecture_energy": 76.651,
    "architecture_maturity": 49.141,
    "architecture_confidence": 82.203,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 4.03,
        "rotation_up": 70.72,
        "upward_expansion": 87.67,
        "deceleration": 61.6,
        "rotation_down": 24.23,
        "downward_expansion": 12.0
      },
      "activity_lines": [
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        54.417238,
        52.83484
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.833333
    },
    "latest_close": 57.959999,
    "trend_reference": 51.107197,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.134087,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 44.909126,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.290606,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 4.924106,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.208572,
    "excess_performance": 0.125688,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.134087,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.044423,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.290606,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.097675,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.049241,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.005385,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.208572,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 3.037057,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 8619,
      "relative_activity": 1.689056,
      "balance": 3.037057,
      "dry_up": 1.556973,
      "accumulation_observations": 4,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.016908,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.118823,
      "from_high_reference": -0.039391,
      "from_low_reference": 0.283214
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 51.107197,
      "fair_value_reference": 44.909126,
      "structural_low": 45.375,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 34,
        "median_return": 0.006936,
        "positive_rate": 0.617647,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.617647,
        "median_excess_return": 0.005778,
        "regime_survival": 0.735294,
        "best_return": 0.075333,
        "worst_return": -0.09685,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 12,
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        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
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        "regime_survival": 0.5,
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        "worst_return": -0.168119,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 7,
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        "regime_survival": 0.428571,
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        "worst_return": -0.12617,
        "sufficient": true
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      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
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        "worst_return": -0.114263,
        "sufficient": false
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        "end": "2024-10-18",
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
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      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "end": "2025-08-01",
        "tenure": "New",
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        "regime": "rotation_up",
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        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": 4.424821,
        "energy": 24.817129,
        "activity_lines": [
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          47.994108,
          48.2868
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
        "close": 50.279999,
        "volume": 12591,
        "typical_volume": 4634.8,
        "trend": 48.724634,
        "fair_value": 43.095925,
        "relative_strength": 2.811465,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 39.361748,
        "energy": 46.634993,
        "activity_lines": [
          49.428666,
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          48.177044,
          48.392903
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "close": 51.560001,
        "volume": 8085,
        "typical_volume": 5038.5,
        "trend": 48.864848,
        "fair_value": 43.221281,
        "relative_strength": 5.462595,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Structural repair",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 51.616226,
        "energy": 75.931563,
        "activity_lines": [
          50.335333,
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          48.57583
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 52.34,
        "volume": 19388,
        "typical_volume": 6005.9,
        "trend": 49.06433,
        "fair_value": 43.350255,
        "relative_strength": 5.886347,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 63.0382,
        "energy": 86.497548,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 52.540001,
        "volume": 5033,
        "typical_volume": 6256.95,
        "trend": 48.804438,
        "fair_value": 43.475639,
        "relative_strength": 3.844372,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 85.742084,
        "energy": 94.590584,
        "activity_lines": [
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          49.02427
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "typical_volume": 6176.1,
        "trend": 48.93345,
        "fair_value": 43.599732,
        "relative_strength": 4.764015,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 87.504855,
        "energy": 95.346155,
        "activity_lines": [
          52.462,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 54.060001,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 5972.1,
        "trend": 49.146849,
        "fair_value": 43.72628,
        "relative_strength": 7.279887,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 89.008474,
        "energy": 95.87702,
        "activity_lines": [
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          50.111785,
          49.643116
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 53.389999,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 5415.8,
        "trend": 49.363034,
        "fair_value": 43.849571,
        "relative_strength": 3.30374,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
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        "energy": 89.10322,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "volume": 184,
        "typical_volume": 5404.3,
        "trend": 49.608916,
        "fair_value": 43.974699,
        "relative_strength": 5.285514,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 87.7804,
        "energy": 94.081799,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 54.16,
        "volume": 3904,
        "typical_volume": 5518.6,
        "trend": 49.776743,
        "fair_value": 44.098369,
        "relative_strength": 1.084178,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 71.316984,
        "energy": 84.268049,
        "activity_lines": [
          54.096,
          53.397727,
          51.45681,
          50.559322
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 55.48,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 5407.3,
        "trend": 49.967777,
        "fair_value": 44.227703,
        "relative_strength": 1.642618,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 88.524591,
        "energy": 86.475352,
        "activity_lines": [
          54.612667,
          53.916727,
          51.980167,
          50.927274
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 55.970001,
        "volume": 13205,
        "typical_volume": 5903.3,
        "trend": 50.186123,
        "fair_value": 44.363352,
        "relative_strength": 3.779222,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 88.644465,
        "energy": 93.066485,
        "activity_lines": [
          55.145334,
          54.423091,
          52.511691,
          51.314515
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 55.630001,
        "volume": 2897,
        "typical_volume": 6020.35,
        "trend": 50.405612,
        "fair_value": 44.497011,
        "relative_strength": 2.288521,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 75.219955,
        "energy": 89.617245,
        "activity_lines": [
          55.437334,
          54.764182,
          52.973619,
          51.665733
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 56.25,
        "volume": 8823,
        "typical_volume": 4593.7,
        "trend": 50.641609,
        "fair_value": 44.632883,
        "relative_strength": 3.458755,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 82.326355,
        "energy": 91.770225,
        "activity_lines": [
          55.786667,
          55.144,
          53.455143,
          52.04279
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 55.82,
        "volume": 11441,
        "typical_volume": 4736.45,
        "trend": 50.861609,
        "fair_value": 44.7627,
        "relative_strength": 2.536182,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 68.32885,
        "energy": 76.801912,
        "activity_lines": [
          55.894,
          55.374546,
          53.855524,
          52.37688
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 57.959999,
        "volume": 8619,
        "typical_volume": 5102.85,
        "trend": 51.107197,
        "fair_value": 44.909126,
        "relative_strength": 4.924106,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 92.809187,
        "energy": 76.651143,
        "activity_lines": [
          56.604,
          55.934545,
          54.417238,
          52.83484
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}