{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b16f8734-4091-49ae-8e78-1ffb3a8b97d8", "symbol": "KNSA", "name": "Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals Ltd", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 86.276, "architecture_energy": 88.526, "architecture_maturity": 32.0, "architecture_confidence": 80.678, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.54, "rotation_up": 82.54, "upward_expansion": 95.5, "deceleration": 43.33, "rotation_down": 9.63, "downward_expansion": 19.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 70.501333, 66.139091, 60.335667, 56.723914 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 76.06, "trend_reference": 52.179667, "distance_from_trend": 0.457656, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 29.743942, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.557159, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 44.597517, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.765143, "excess_performance": 0.577689, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.457656, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.149733, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.557159, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.306883, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.445975, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.175717, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.765143, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.556036, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2551731, "relative_activity": 0.696454, "balance": 2.556036, "dry_up": 0.996527, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.080777, "annualized_volatility": 0.534665, "from_high_reference": -0.082952, "from_low_reference": 1.376875 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 52.179667, "fair_value_reference": 29.743942, "structural_low": 41.12, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": 0.031475, "positive_rate": 0.678571, "directional_follow_through": 0.678571, "median_excess_return": 0.017278, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.288699, "worst_return": -0.15323, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.119682, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": 0.009189, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.382833, "worst_return": -0.117939, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.250083, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.172843, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.5463, "worst_return": -0.219434, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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3714325.55, "trend": 51.066667, "fair_value": 29.365994, "relative_strength": 50.475939, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 89.682855, "energy": 88.685821, "activity_lines": [ 67.088, 63.075455, 58.287762, 55.111441 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 76.06, "volume": 2551731, "typical_volume": 3663887.8, "trend": 52.179667, "fair_value": 29.743942, "relative_strength": 44.597517, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.275527, "energy": 88.525788, "activity_lines": [ 70.501333, 66.139091, 60.335667, 56.723914 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }