{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b1736af7-93bf-45b6-8f3e-7184a23d64c0", "symbol": "C5E", "name": "Amundi ETF Stoxx Europe 50 UCITS ETF", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 81.699, "architecture_energy": 80.657, "architecture_maturity": 31.45, "architecture_confidence": 91.103, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.57, "rotation_up": 65.75, "upward_expansion": 90.7, "deceleration": 48.89, "rotation_down": 21.58, "downward_expansion": 17.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 153.326669, 152.241094, 149.133811, 146.71712 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 155.419998, "trend_reference": 144.213334, "distance_from_trend": 0.077709, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 122.9554, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.264036, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 5.073028, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.099462, "excess_performance": 0.046151, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.077709, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042114, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.264036, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.074908, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.05073, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009584, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.099462, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.610242, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20623, "relative_activity": 2.983522, "balance": 1.610242, "dry_up": 1.423694, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018263, "annualized_volatility": 0.145164, "from_high_reference": -0.002439, "from_low_reference": 0.269149 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 144.213334, "fair_value_reference": 122.9554, "structural_low": 129.720001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": 0.003659, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": 0.004126, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.056498, "worst_return": -0.112893, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.016356, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.015631, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.094173, "worst_return": -0.017894, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.044098, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.011594, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.122556, "worst_return": -0.06268, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.921542, "energy": 84.066581, "activity_lines": [ 151.084004, 149.037457, 145.695334, 144.097549 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 151.100006, "volume": 1821, "typical_volume": 8872.35, "trend": 142.573334, "fair_value": 121.983733, "relative_strength": 7.573706, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.286714, "energy": 81.160322, "activity_lines": [ 151.309338, 149.757457, 146.442478, 144.683399 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 152.440002, "volume": 4584, "typical_volume": 7087.5, "trend": 143.160001, "fair_value": 122.290656, "relative_strength": 7.789893, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.244414, "energy": 78.983705, "activity_lines": [ 151.778671, 150.54873, 147.294287, 145.319958 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 153.100006, "volume": 12336, "typical_volume": 6386.2, "trend": 143.704001, "fair_value": 122.61899, "relative_strength": 6.242019, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.674594, "energy": 65.026993, "activity_lines": [ 152.270671, 151.252367, 148.139812, 145.961249 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 155.419998, "volume": 20623, "typical_volume": 6912.3, "trend": 144.213334, "fair_value": 122.9554, "relative_strength": 5.073028, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.699192, "energy": 80.657354, "activity_lines": [ 153.326669, 152.241094, 149.133811, 146.71712 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }