{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b1759257-eb12-490b-8135-bfb35baa2953", "symbol": "600713", "name": "Nanjing Pharmaceutical Group Company Limited", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 58.414, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -25.994, "architecture_energy": 15.494, "architecture_maturity": 50.363, "architecture_confidence": 60.727, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.93, "rotation_up": 30.82, "upward_expansion": 19.99, "deceleration": 41.6, "rotation_down": 22.32, "downward_expansion": 53.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.081333, 5.039581, 5.059714, 5.147695 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 5.18, "trend_reference": 5.265761, "distance_from_trend": -0.016287, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.829389, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.072599, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.040257, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.063291, "excess_performance": -0.020087, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.016287, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014918, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.072599, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004073, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.000403, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.097929, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.063291, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.703234, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 60535872, "relative_activity": 0.596315, "balance": 0.703234, "dry_up": 0.826798, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042811, "annualized_volatility": 0.282506, "from_high_reference": -0.221053, "from_low_reference": 0.099391 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.265761, "fair_value_reference": 4.829389, "structural_low": 4.711701, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.037792, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": 0.028704, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.121429, "worst_return": -0.146939, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.033428, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.00857, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.092379, "worst_return": -0.05653, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.075498, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.025159, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.129931, "worst_return": -0.11306, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"typical_volume": 94323580.55, "trend": 5.306094, "fair_value": 4.826577, "relative_strength": -4.100731, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.355713, "energy": 26.709027, "activity_lines": [ 5.002622, 4.95678, 5.107291, 5.205762 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.14, "volume": 146845268, "typical_volume": 99437729.35, "trend": 5.308428, "fair_value": 4.827445, "relative_strength": 3.000038, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.908579, "energy": 23.711865, "activity_lines": [ 5.065902, 4.988699, 5.099135, 5.195047 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.89, "volume": 82926203, "typical_volume": 100553416.55, "trend": 5.290428, "fair_value": 4.827188, "relative_strength": -2.993325, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.266161, "energy": 26.327974, "activity_lines": [ 5.02568, 4.97582, 5.068979, 5.168051 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.07, "volume": 45427534, "typical_volume": 100686602.1, "trend": 5.275094, "fair_value": 4.828085, "relative_strength": 0.337266, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.533575, "energy": 19.84585, "activity_lines": [ 5.040667, 4.998759, 5.058251, 5.15383 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.18, "volume": 60535872, "typical_volume": 101516540.7, "trend": 5.265761, "fair_value": 4.829389, "relative_strength": -0.040257, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.993561, "energy": 15.493953, "activity_lines": [ 5.081333, 5.039581, 5.059714, 5.147695 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }