{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b1776237-b7d6-43a5-acc2-9a67167ddf86", "symbol": "XHU", "name": "iShares U.S. High Dividend Equity Index ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 91.829, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 68.022, "architecture_energy": 63.099, "architecture_maturity": 30.447, "architecture_confidence": 64.935, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.79, "rotation_up": 71.67, "upward_expansion": 86.43, "deceleration": 56.73, "rotation_down": 15.07, "downward_expansion": 10.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 40.829009, 40.449968, 39.574945, 39.019074 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 40.889999, "trend_reference": 38.291987, "distance_from_trend": 0.067847, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 34.197856, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.195689, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.591388, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.083172, "excess_performance": -0.037249, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.067847, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037881, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.195689, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.078728, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.025914, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.058869, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.083172, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.724315, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 39000, "relative_activity": 4.135737, "balance": 0.724315, "dry_up": 1.52439, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02243, "annualized_volatility": 0.127687, "from_high_reference": -0.023173, "from_low_reference": 0.216929 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 38.291987, "fair_value_reference": 34.197856, "structural_low": 36.673676, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": 0.00797, "positive_rate": 0.675676, "directional_follow_through": 0.675676, "median_excess_return": 0.001766, "regime_survival": 0.756757, "best_return": 0.052527, "worst_return": -0.083084, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.008754, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.015775, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.075228, "worst_return": -0.057431, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.045441, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.028813, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.103457, "worst_return": -0.021177, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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39.830658, "volume": 8800, "typical_volume": 9080.0, "trend": 37.525797, "fair_value": 33.893309, "relative_strength": -3.014628, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.789799, "energy": 81.796369, "activity_lines": [ 39.870997, 39.388566, 38.653699, 38.229694 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 40.249928, "volume": 7600, "typical_volume": 9005.0, "trend": 37.668228, "fair_value": 33.966951, "relative_strength": -1.672825, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.995317, "energy": 77.120526, "activity_lines": [ 40.054406, 39.627702, 38.847851, 38.405444 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 41.238209, "volume": 6300, "typical_volume": 8665.0, "trend": 37.846761, "fair_value": 34.045688, "relative_strength": 0.614185, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.135648, "energy": 77.466714, "activity_lines": [ 40.504152, 39.98986, 39.127566, 38.635765 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 40.985001, "volume": 4600, "typical_volume": 7905.0, "trend": 38.086958, "fair_value": 34.123726, "relative_strength": 0.601817, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.550024, "energy": 65.621565, "activity_lines": [ 40.716567, 40.246377, 39.363891, 38.838233 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 40.889999, "volume": 39000, "typical_volume": 9430.0, "trend": 38.291987, "fair_value": 34.197856, "relative_strength": -2.591388, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.0223, "energy": 63.099255, "activity_lines": [ 40.829009, 40.449968, 39.574945, 39.019074 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }