{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b1794510-5af4-4c01-8f26-9c35bfcb9360", "symbol": "ICHN", "name": "iShares MSCI China UCITS ETF", "exchange": "AMS", "country": "NL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AEX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 84.517, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -9.025, "architecture_energy": 18.954, "architecture_maturity": 99.142, "architecture_confidence": 53.361, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.89, "rotation_up": 40.84, "upward_expansion": 23.4, "deceleration": 41.29, "rotation_down": 16.98, "downward_expansion": 55.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.646533, 5.541127, 5.594475, 5.670479 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 5.803, "trend_reference": 5.813293, "distance_from_trend": -0.001771, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.025031, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.154819, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.490902, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.074629, "excess_performance": -0.191292, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.001771, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042851, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.154819, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.05959, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.144909, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.073204, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.074629, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.923203, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1271362, "relative_activity": 0.975659, "balance": 0.923203, "dry_up": 0.888451, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032583, "annualized_volatility": 0.180126, "from_high_reference": -0.144668, "from_low_reference": 0.136061 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.813293, "fair_value_reference": 5.025031, "structural_low": 5.108, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.021736, "positive_rate": 0.40625, "directional_follow_through": 0.59375, "median_excess_return": -0.018985, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.152447, "worst_return": -0.12523, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.058988, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.07904, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.154443, "worst_return": -0.136343, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.09421, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.084076, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.074271, "worst_return": -0.193699, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.008963, "energy": 65.577034, "activity_lines": [ 5.390867, 5.447836, 5.592621, 5.706 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.497, "volume": 965144, "typical_volume": 1306518.65, "trend": 5.852197, "fair_value": 5.00806, "relative_strength": -18.064892, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.603818, "energy": 45.821524, "activity_lines": [ 5.4316, 5.443855, 5.57547, 5.681532 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.709, "volume": 865997, "typical_volume": 1287746.15, "trend": 5.83112, "fair_value": 5.015421, "relative_strength": -15.291289, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.564354, "energy": 20.557532, "activity_lines": [ 5.540133, 5.484255, 5.580028, 5.672293 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.803, "volume": 1271362, "typical_volume": 1303079.9, "trend": 5.813293, "fair_value": 5.025031, "relative_strength": -14.490902, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.025484, "energy": 18.953857, "activity_lines": [ 5.646533, 5.541127, 5.594475, 5.670479 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }