{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b17a00e8-761c-4451-b3cf-068b9830ec2b", "symbol": "ARAY", "name": "Accuray Incorporated", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.367, "architecture_energy": 43.04, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 87.894, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.36, "rotation_up": 26.85, "upward_expansion": 6.09, "deceleration": 58.41, "rotation_down": 47.8, "downward_expansion": 79.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.264833, 0.269711, 0.304355, 0.344038 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.285, "trend_reference": 0.424893, "distance_from_trend": -0.329243, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.66159, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.828478, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -69.921849, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.540323, "excess_performance": -0.727776, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.329243, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.354769, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.828478, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023132, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.699218, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011665, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.540323, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.131442, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4549691, "relative_activity": 0.349202, "balance": 1.131442, "dry_up": 0.59779, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.24888, "annualized_volatility": 0.970373, "from_high_reference": -0.864286, "from_low_reference": 0.295455 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.424893, "fair_value_reference": 1.66159, "structural_low": 0.22, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": -0.017299, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.052467, "regime_survival": 0.805556, "best_return": 0.3625, "worst_return": -0.339858, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.104772, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.151453, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.265957, "worst_return": -0.502486, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.197324, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.315153, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.595745, "worst_return": -0.65307, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.439452, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.523467, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.678899, "worst_return": -0.705759, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-01-05", "end": "2024-04-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.133574, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-04-12", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.004386, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.04386, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.098958, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.251397, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.184211, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.186813, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.006329, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.032895, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.05988, "active": false 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.1751, "energy": 58.320405, "activity_lines": [ 0.270467, 0.297651, 0.340308, 0.398714 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.2593, "volume": 6333499, "typical_volume": 13056347.9, "trend": 0.483787, "fair_value": 1.730106, "relative_strength": -73.855677, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.133687, "energy": 65.356276, "activity_lines": [ 0.260233, 0.287938, 0.329138, 0.382837 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.2384, "volume": 4411866, "typical_volume": 13039262.85, "trend": 0.464223, "fair_value": 1.704712, "relative_strength": -74.874619, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.617797, "energy": 63.111397, "activity_lines": [ 0.2485, 0.27662, 0.317493, 0.367005 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.2681, "volume": 15858944, "typical_volume": 13298889.1, "trend": 0.444867, "fair_value": 1.679507, "relative_strength": -71.126188, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.403144, "energy": 48.001807, "activity_lines": [ 0.253967, 0.271276, 0.309876, 0.354352 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.285, "volume": 4549691, "typical_volume": 13028818.7, "trend": 0.424893, "fair_value": 1.66159, "relative_strength": -69.921849, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.367034, "energy": 43.040202, "activity_lines": [ 0.264833, 0.269711, 0.304355, 0.344038 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }