{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b17aa7d9-9133-495d-b440-5176e8b2a94c", "symbol": "WBO", "name": "Weibo Corporation", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -23.702, "architecture_energy": 24.39, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 55.348, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.38, "rotation_up": 38.62, "upward_expansion": 20.94, "deceleration": 44.11, "rotation_down": 17.81, "downward_expansion": 52.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.916667, 6.782727, 6.822999, 6.960593 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 6.9, "trend_reference": 7.238701, "distance_from_trend": -0.04679, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.383542, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.065489, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -29.775698, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.130075, "excess_performance": -0.304322, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.04679, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.060628, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.065489, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011238, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.297757, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045379, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.130075, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.0, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 5.0, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.039019, "annualized_volatility": 0.248182, "from_high_reference": -0.326004, "from_low_reference": 0.112903 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.238701, "fair_value_reference": 7.383542, "structural_low": 6.2, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": -0.014286, "positive_rate": 0.486486, "directional_follow_through": 0.513514, "median_excess_return": -0.038279, "regime_survival": 0.891892, "best_return": 0.234483, "worst_return": -0.309392, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.098379, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.070469, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.437723, "worst_return": -0.286486, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.034091, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.135522, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.585714, "worst_return": -0.445946, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.059259, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.074324, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.017857, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.213415, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"relative_strength": -31.871136, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.840557, "energy": 65.284555, "activity_lines": [ 6.556667, 6.643636, 6.841205, 7.072853 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.8, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 196.7, "trend": 7.364541, "fair_value": 7.438186, "relative_strength": -29.40507, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.753771, "energy": 49.540743, "activity_lines": [ 6.643333, 6.651818, 6.819599, 7.0337 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.9, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 196.7, "trend": 7.330151, "fair_value": 7.416488, "relative_strength": -28.765447, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.771959, "energy": 29.156311, "activity_lines": [ 6.753333, 6.685455, 6.812247, 7.003729 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.05, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 196.7, "trend": 7.288463, "fair_value": 7.398599, "relative_strength": -26.661329, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.477344, "energy": 25.247483, "activity_lines": [ 6.883333, 6.749091, 6.822777, 6.985655 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.9, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 138.55, "trend": 7.238701, "fair_value": 7.383542, "relative_strength": -29.775698, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.701517, "energy": 24.389839, "activity_lines": [ 6.916667, 6.782727, 6.822999, 6.960593 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }