{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b17f4848-0af7-4a90-bfd3-4630dbbded18", "symbol": "002594", "name": "BYD Company Limited", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -30.509, "architecture_energy": 21.164, "architecture_maturity": 34.747, "architecture_confidence": 60.74, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.94, "rotation_up": 34.33, "upward_expansion": 20.07, "deceleration": 43.95, "rotation_down": 23.06, "downward_expansion": 54.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 92.255566, 90.499992, 92.293189, 93.722387 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 90.040001, "trend_reference": 94.684167, "distance_from_trend": -0.049049, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 91.499793, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.015954, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.615565, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.009352, "excess_performance": -0.016752, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.049049, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024129, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.015954, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.116028, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.116156, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.11472, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.009352, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.888417, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 232159805, "relative_activity": 1.152891, "balance": 0.888417, "dry_up": 1.174238, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.071327, "annualized_volatility": 0.348433, "from_high_reference": -0.227721, "from_low_reference": 0.155708 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 94.684167, "fair_value_reference": 91.499793, "structural_low": 77.908981, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.02484, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.384615, "median_excess_return": -0.0129, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.291469, "worst_return": -0.124236, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.026671, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.002484, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.232394, "worst_return": -0.127719, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.056716, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.058565, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.415754, "worst_return": -0.293754, "sufficient": true 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86.195984, 89.721973, 94.025505, 94.745492 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 89.66507, "volume": 236583221, "typical_volume": 215746991.45, "trend": 95.300161, "fair_value": 91.308461, "relative_strength": -19.067359, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.270124, "energy": 71.939066, "activity_lines": [ 86.831691, 89.151627, 93.454798, 94.368357 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 93.122162, "volume": 278036392, "typical_volume": 224440888.8, "trend": 95.1709, "fair_value": 91.369025, "relative_strength": -6.958002, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.737423, "energy": 42.915796, "activity_lines": [ 88.842757, 89.451932, 93.216219, 94.227841 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 91.548035, "volume": 229608108, "typical_volume": 215632156.25, "trend": 95.081501, "fair_value": 91.406767, "relative_strength": -8.186141, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.091669, "energy": 21.15602, "activity_lines": [ 90.227637, 89.591448, 92.809618, 93.994107 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 95.769997, "volume": 206029614, "typical_volume": 208299119.15, "trend": 94.940167, "fair_value": 91.471552, "relative_strength": -1.807061, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.747872, "energy": 19.77084, "activity_lines": [ 92.791968, 90.584992, 92.814975, 94.038527 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 90.040001, "volume": 232159805, "typical_volume": 201371899.55, "trend": 94.684167, "fair_value": 91.499793, "relative_strength": -11.615565, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.509465, "energy": 21.164254, "activity_lines": [ 92.255566, 90.499992, 92.293189, 93.722387 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }