{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b180c0a5-e08a-427c-a9b2-b0c81bc198e8", "symbol": "CMC", "name": "Commercial Metals Company", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 67.248, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 20.368, "architecture_energy": 15.434, "architecture_maturity": 31.919, "architecture_confidence": 79.974, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 68.23, "rotation_up": 43.82, "upward_expansion": 24.52, "deceleration": 47.98, "rotation_down": 24.13, "downward_expansion": 26.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 70.189333, 68.927418, 69.646248, 69.259651 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 75.13, "trend_reference": 70.038381, "distance_from_trend": 0.072698, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 55.713729, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.348501, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.985561, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.091755, "excess_performance": -0.21738, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.072698, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017641, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.348501, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033227, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.009856, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025385, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.091755, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.198243, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5382335, "relative_activity": 0.944987, "balance": 1.198243, "dry_up": 0.970867, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.077152, "annualized_volatility": 0.386525, "from_high_reference": -0.111874, "from_low_reference": 0.436945 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 70.038381, "fair_value_reference": 55.713729, "structural_low": 57.372722, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.06559, "positive_rate": 0.785714, "directional_follow_through": 0.785714, "median_excess_return": 0.027655, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.222811, "worst_return": -0.092966, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.13762, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.07373, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.365672, "worst_return": -0.112288, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.306378, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.211999, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.417706, "worst_return": -0.027915, 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"activity_lines": [ 66.023827, 68.170348, 68.865151, 69.008697 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 68.72, "volume": 4930584, "typical_volume": 5773804.1, "trend": 69.935713, "fair_value": 55.572334, "relative_strength": -4.153678, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.340977, "energy": 24.564561, "activity_lines": [ 67.029581, 67.937246, 68.969173, 68.924535 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 75.13, "volume": 5382335, "typical_volume": 5695670.5, "trend": 70.038381, "fair_value": 55.713729, "relative_strength": 0.985561, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 20.36848, "energy": 15.433984, "activity_lines": [ 70.189333, 68.927418, 69.646248, 69.259651 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }