{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b1827c53-9a6c-44c0-a7eb-ed4cdbc531b8", "symbol": "277650", "name": "Mirae Asset TIGER KOSPI MIDCAP ETF", "exchange": "KSC", "country": "KR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^KS11", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 85.929, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.876, "architecture_energy": 55.407, "architecture_maturity": 19.311, "architecture_confidence": 84.193, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.32, "rotation_up": 11.98, "upward_expansion": 9.42, "deceleration": 44.94, "rotation_down": 69.89, "downward_expansion": 85.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 19929.333333, 20494.181818, 21944.906603, 22340.59312 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 20420.0, "trend_reference": 22473.752083, "distance_from_trend": -0.091384, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16433.603046, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.242576, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.783646, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.034345, "excess_performance": -0.264174, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.091384, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030885, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.242576, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.434119, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.207836, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.060635, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.034345, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.241031, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6141, "relative_activity": 1.487375, "balance": 0.241031, "dry_up": 0.708992, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.0954, "annualized_volatility": 0.371, "from_high_reference": -0.23334, "from_low_reference": 0.215334 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22473.752083, "fair_value_reference": 16433.603046, "structural_low": 17425.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.002937, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.042105, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.109015, "worst_return": -0.12015, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.042339, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.012707, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.018269, "worst_return": -0.063529, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.013747, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.061597, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.073915, "worst_return": -0.046421, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"teal", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.016279, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.064931, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.093639, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.28242, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.040898, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.058879, "active": 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"energy": 55.40695, "activity_lines": [ 19929.333333, 20494.181818, 21944.906603, 22340.59312 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }