{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b1857289-ee1a-49a0-a064-fd4a6bb6ad94", "symbol": "9615", "name": "Mufeed Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 82.151, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -79.958, "architecture_energy": 88.322, "architecture_maturity": 24.123, "architecture_confidence": 80.099, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.95, "rotation_up": 8.77, "upward_expansion": 21.06, "deceleration": 37.1, "rotation_down": 76.02, "downward_expansion": 92.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 31.4, 32.853091, 35.528476, 36.151312 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 29.799999, "trend_reference": 36.188667, "distance_from_trend": -0.176538, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 48.426221, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.384631, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.25333, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.115727, "excess_performance": -0.083898, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.176538, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00118, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.384631, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.214972, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.172533, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.178261, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.115727, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.205869, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2884, "relative_activity": 0.173171, "balance": 1.205869, "dry_up": 0.312115, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.076665, "annualized_volatility": 0.464355, "from_high_reference": -0.409901, "from_low_reference": 0.064286 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 36.188667, "fair_value_reference": 48.426221, "structural_low": 28.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.148571, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.150808, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.148571, "worst_return": -0.148571, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.153189, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.148571, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-11-29", "close": 69.718231, "volume": 299669, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-12-06", "close": 68.12735, "volume": 30255, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, 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"2026-06-12", "close": 38.0, "volume": 3306, "typical_volume": 23364.3, "trend": 36.308, "fair_value": 49.943379, "relative_strength": -5.384189, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.388534, "energy": 27.78766, "activity_lines": [ 39.949334, 40.141091, 39.129715, 37.84228 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 34.5, "volume": 19383, "typical_volume": 22697.15, "trend": 36.308, "fair_value": 49.755045, "relative_strength": -13.726121, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.702661, "energy": 13.839046, "activity_lines": [ 37.913334, 39.149091, 38.808572, 37.725635 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 33.5, "volume": 3522, "typical_volume": 20638.85, "trend": 36.304667, "fair_value": 49.559201, "relative_strength": -13.758358, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.038166, "energy": 33.615312, "activity_lines": [ 36.048, 38.089819, 38.387143, 37.544473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 33.720001, "volume": 3337, "typical_volume": 20167.35, "trend": 36.286, "fair_value": 49.370639, "relative_strength": -11.286175, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.774941, "energy": 40.176823, "activity_lines": [ 34.794667, 37.134546, 37.987619, 37.377721 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 35.0, "volume": 2504, "typical_volume": 19395.0, "trend": 36.342667, "fair_value": 49.201573, "relative_strength": -6.82904, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.323106, "energy": 53.29779, "activity_lines": [ 34.492, 36.495273, 37.712476, 37.294753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 35.0, "volume": 46, "typical_volume": 19065.05, "trend": 36.432, "fair_value": 49.036438, "relative_strength": -4.927185, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.83845, "energy": 57.82277, "activity_lines": [ 34.510667, 35.918182, 37.448762, 37.208129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 35.0, "volume": 132, "typical_volume": 16787.1, "trend": 36.432667, "fair_value": 48.8751, "relative_strength": -4.616978, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.2041, "energy": 51.253295, "activity_lines": [ 34.729333, 35.468, 37.185048, 37.115742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.0, "volume": 17730, "typical_volume": 16510.85, "trend": 36.316, "fair_value": 48.637883, "relative_strength": -21.229106, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -62.841818, "energy": 73.316431, "activity_lines": [ 32.581333, 33.873455, 36.252286, 36.571699 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 29.799999, "volume": 2884, "typical_volume": 16654.1, "trend": 36.188667, "fair_value": 48.426221, "relative_strength": -17.25333, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.957638, "energy": 88.322379, "activity_lines": [ 31.4, 32.853091, 35.528476, 36.151312 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }