{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b1887597-2330-4c1f-9b13-7ffa69445f80", "symbol": "IAUM", "name": "ISHARES GOLD TRUST UNDIVIDED BENEFICIAL INTS USD", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 68.562, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.576, "architecture_energy": 42.517, "architecture_maturity": 54.334, "architecture_confidence": 68.112, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.47, "rotation_up": 25.7, "upward_expansion": 17.92, "deceleration": 66.33, "rotation_down": 49.69, "downward_expansion": 72.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 41.335333, 41.190364, 42.549619, 43.916108 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 43.29, "trend_reference": 45.645667, "distance_from_trend": -0.051608, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 31.240353, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.385708, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.58496, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.122974, "excess_performance": -0.248599, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.051608, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007919, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.385708, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.218646, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.10585, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.133856, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.122974, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.691561, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14495759, "relative_activity": 1.082043, "balance": 0.691561, "dry_up": 0.785229, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046261, "annualized_volatility": 0.242368, "from_high_reference": -0.216754, "from_low_reference": 0.309635 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 45.645667, "fair_value_reference": 31.240353, "structural_low": 39.45, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.003648, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.016959, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.004154, "worst_return": -0.004191, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.050026, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.012825, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.050026, "worst_return": 0.050026, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.121417, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.036762, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.121417, "worst_return": 0.121417, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"fair_value": 30.950865, "relative_strength": -12.650647, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.159704, "energy": 68.106215, "activity_lines": [ 40.494667, 41.175091, 42.990667, 44.421591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 40.37, "volume": 12836350, "typical_volume": 14508122.3, "trend": 45.700667, "fair_value": 31.085353, "relative_strength": -13.629801, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.962916, "energy": 59.240116, "activity_lines": [ 40.422, 40.875818, 42.60819, 44.071634 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 43.29, "volume": 14495759, "typical_volume": 13396659.65, "trend": 45.645667, "fair_value": 31.240353, "relative_strength": -10.58496, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.576188, "energy": 42.516661, "activity_lines": [ 41.335333, 41.190364, 42.549619, 43.916108 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }