{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b18bd8ce-bde8-43af-bfe6-dca22d19051c", "symbol": "CGL-C", "name": "iShares Gold Bullion ETF (Non-Hedged)", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 54.867, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.74, "architecture_energy": 51.588, "architecture_maturity": 42.721, "architecture_confidence": 91.485, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.09, "rotation_up": 26.14, "upward_expansion": 8.34, "deceleration": 59.54, "rotation_down": 52.22, "downward_expansion": 81.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 48.546, 48.587091, 49.85081, 51.19314 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 50.57, "trend_reference": 52.914667, "distance_from_trend": -0.04431, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 36.412372, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.388814, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.204021, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.106063, "excess_performance": -0.226485, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.04431, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004184, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.388814, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.193922, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.10204, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.122274, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.106063, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.590909, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 85600, "relative_activity": 1.165815, "balance": 0.590909, "dry_up": 0.925775, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.034256, "annualized_volatility": 0.243006, "from_high_reference": -0.192043, "from_low_reference": 0.312143 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 52.914667, "fair_value_reference": 36.412372, "structural_low": 46.48, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.033158, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.008384, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.110329, "worst_return": -0.049118, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.086855, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.014993, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.125964, "worst_return": 0.023684, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.175142, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.05453, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.197653, "worst_return": 0.152632, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-11-24", "end": "2023-12-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.003033, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-01-05", "end": "2024-01-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003453, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-01-19", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.154179, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.016974, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.358348, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 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49.945334, 51.095637, 52.670143, 53.324495 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 48.25, "volume": 21100, "typical_volume": 104940.0, "trend": 53.271667, "fair_value": 35.390064, "relative_strength": -11.205846, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.059737, "energy": 89.217734, "activity_lines": [ 49.174, 50.402, 52.111429, 52.997893 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 49.880001, "volume": 35300, "typical_volume": 100305.0, "trend": 53.312667, "fair_value": 35.570769, "relative_strength": -8.921087, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.808936, "energy": 84.045237, "activity_lines": [ 49.2, 50.137091, 51.747572, 52.779076 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 48.549999, "volume": 42700, "typical_volume": 95285.0, "trend": 53.277333, "fair_value": 35.741282, "relative_strength": -11.437291, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.729255, "energy": 83.227796, "activity_lines": [ 48.946667, 49.701818, 51.292619, 52.471807 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 46.939999, "volume": 98600, "typical_volume": 93650.0, "trend": 53.174333, "fair_value": 35.900898, "relative_strength": -14.186016, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.637788, "energy": 83.639015, "activity_lines": [ 48.269333, 49.042182, 50.73081, 52.062946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 47.73, "volume": 50500, "typical_volume": 85710.0, "trend": 53.057667, "fair_value": 36.065705, "relative_strength": -12.949229, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.364504, "energy": 63.953593, "activity_lines": [ 48.004666, 48.654545, 50.306429, 51.711699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 47.43, "volume": 37200, "typical_volume": 82160.0, "trend": 52.98, "fair_value": 36.228333, "relative_strength": -13.043871, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.478378, "energy": 67.450748, "activity_lines": [ 47.724666, 48.293273, 49.904952, 51.348624 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 50.57, "volume": 85600, "typical_volume": 73425.0, "trend": 52.914667, "fair_value": 36.412372, "relative_strength": -10.204021, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.740213, "energy": 51.588489, "activity_lines": [ 48.546, 48.587091, 49.85081, 51.19314 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }