{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b1913b76-ca06-48e5-8d0f-73858cf92de8", "symbol": "MAYP", "name": "PGIM S&P 500 BUFFER 12 ETF - MAY", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 57.929, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 83.771, "architecture_energy": 60.722, "architecture_maturity": 40.047, "architecture_confidence": 70.588, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.27, "rotation_up": 65.18, "upward_expansion": 81.84, "deceleration": 60.4, "rotation_down": 19.37, "downward_expansion": 8.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.719013, 32.554525, 32.34261, 32.070681 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 33.18, "trend_reference": 31.731957, "distance_from_trend": 0.045634, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 29.11287, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.139702, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.095568, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.065689, "excess_performance": -0.059936, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.045634, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018937, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.139702, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028268, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.050956, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014062, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.065689, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.373154, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 18329, "relative_activity": 0.574725, "balance": 2.373154, "dry_up": 0.596659, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.012525, "annualized_volatility": 0.059515, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.11642 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 31.731957, "fair_value_reference": 29.11287, "structural_low": 30.597, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.006265, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.004355, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.013094, "worst_return": -0.018748, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.025787, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.01119, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.039799, "worst_return": 0.024898, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.051328, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.054281, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.051328, "worst_return": 0.051328, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.019682, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.026585, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.046853, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-05-03", "close": 25.2881, "volume": 15900, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, 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"fair_value": 29.11287, "relative_strength": -5.095568, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.770973, "energy": 60.72207, "activity_lines": [ 32.719013, 32.554525, 32.34261, 32.070681 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }