{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b19553a3-2619-47f8-ba6e-72547ea463f1", "symbol": "ZGI", "name": "BMO Global Infrastructure Index ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 13.618, "architecture_energy": 9.128, "architecture_maturity": 51.897, "architecture_confidence": 76.154, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.5, "rotation_up": 25.48, "upward_expansion": 62.68, "deceleration": 84.34, "rotation_down": 29.04, "downward_expansion": 15.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 58.906667, 59.330044, 59.009045, 58.660471 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 57.18, "trend_reference": 57.80543, "distance_from_trend": -0.01082, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 49.079287, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.165054, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.667179, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.061188, "excess_performance": -0.059233, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.01082, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040116, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.165054, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029598, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.086672, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019683, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.061188, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.841975, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 26100, "relative_activity": 2.098071, "balance": 0.841975, "dry_up": 1.296222, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.029307, "annualized_volatility": 0.185038, "from_high_reference": -0.062623, "from_low_reference": 0.132241 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 57.80543, "fair_value_reference": 49.079287, "structural_low": 53.743753, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": 0.000741, "positive_rate": 0.512821, "directional_follow_through": 0.512821, "median_excess_return": -0.004824, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.089251, "worst_return": -0.095742, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.015925, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.014509, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.145892, "worst_return": -0.047956, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.045167, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.003522, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.215039, "worst_return": -0.051599, 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}, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 60.77, "volume": 6400, "typical_volume": 12340.0, "trend": 57.367535, "fair_value": 48.836296, "relative_strength": -0.777726, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.209268, "energy": 47.606802, "activity_lines": [ 60.303067, 59.86684, 59.154503, 58.596184 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 58.790001, "volume": 9800, "typical_volume": 12105.0, "trend": 57.606023, "fair_value": 48.965073, "relative_strength": -3.337408, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.672112, "energy": 33.480051, "activity_lines": [ 59.806001, 59.736243, 59.159279, 58.687956 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 57.18, "volume": 26100, "typical_volume": 12440.0, "trend": 57.80543, "fair_value": 49.079287, "relative_strength": -8.667179, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.617609, "energy": 9.127763, "activity_lines": [ 58.906667, 59.330044, 59.009045, 58.660471 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }