{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b1973a65-e312-4b1b-8105-9fb3b86c429c", "symbol": "ESOA", "name": "Energy Services Of America Corp", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 11.185, "architecture_energy": 17.567, "architecture_maturity": 29.481, "architecture_confidence": 72.935, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 62.84, "rotation_up": 19.98, "upward_expansion": 43.1, "deceleration": 84.55, "rotation_down": 35.94, "downward_expansion": 30.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.495333, 16.188163, 16.32328, 15.806534 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 15.65, "trend_reference": 14.692666, "distance_from_trend": 0.065157, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.742196, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.606414, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 10.947144, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.665155, "excess_performance": 0.477701, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.065157, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.208727, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.606414, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.408043, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.109471, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.218112, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.665155, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.719756, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 466968, "relative_activity": 0.711236, "balance": 0.719756, "dry_up": 0.98921, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.127501, "annualized_volatility": 0.777165, "from_high_reference": -0.213522, "from_low_reference": 1.008081 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.692666, "fair_value_reference": 9.742196, "structural_low": 9.3225, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.018313, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.050164, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.337047, "worst_return": -0.271428, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.098328, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.171945, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.631987, "worst_return": -0.234146, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.188008, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.317577, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.739608, "worst_return": -0.212728, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.376298, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.101527, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.386687, "worst_return": 0.039024, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.355932, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.373833, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.161068, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.029532, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.202638, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.212728, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.086735, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.163907, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-04-17", 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9.41572, "relative_strength": 21.129603, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.65932, "energy": 45.079581, "activity_lines": [ 17.522552, 17.075424, 16.439992, 15.444053 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 16.0, "volume": 408597, "typical_volume": 676137.5, "trend": 13.968839, "fair_value": 9.500856, "relative_strength": 19.394177, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.674417, "energy": 37.241078, "activity_lines": [ 17.043789, 16.892333, 16.467527, 15.592124 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.94, "volume": 597101, "typical_volume": 650371.3, "trend": 14.233761, "fair_value": 9.585545, "relative_strength": 20.316629, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.990884, "energy": 19.56832, "activity_lines": [ 16.589394, 16.721501, 16.487369, 15.719296 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.38, "volume": 1125231, "typical_volume": 663792.9, "trend": 14.444043, "fair_value": 9.659614, "relative_strength": 7.680022, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": -0.112643, "energy": 11.442354, "activity_lines": [ 15.68, 16.311614, 16.34925, 15.72873 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.65, "volume": 466968, "typical_volume": 656558.7, "trend": 14.692666, "fair_value": 9.742196, "relative_strength": 10.947144, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.185286, "energy": 17.566984, "activity_lines": [ 15.495333, 16.188163, 16.32328, 15.806534 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }