{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b19a2ba8-e9b5-44a1-b1c1-c85a4e8553d3", "symbol": "MPWR", "name": "Monolithic Power Systems Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 91.818, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 19.205, "architecture_energy": 10.686, "architecture_maturity": 25.546, "architecture_confidence": 87.755, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.95, "rotation_up": 23.64, "upward_expansion": 50.51, "deceleration": 85.42, "rotation_down": 30.13, "downward_expansion": 23.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 1379.332667, 1378.552655, 1431.432598, 1390.987558 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 1401.54, "trend_reference": 1321.246347, "distance_from_trend": 0.060771, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 826.229518, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.696308, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 7.820143, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.141715, "excess_performance": -0.045739, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.060771, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.134642, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.696308, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.440141, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.078201, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.308298, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.141715, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.58036, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4384396, "relative_activity": 1.107343, "balance": 0.58036, "dry_up": 1.195707, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.13631, "annualized_volatility": 0.502175, "from_high_reference": -0.181159, "from_low_reference": 0.77038 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1321.246347, "fair_value_reference": 826.229518, "structural_low": 986.19601, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.093946, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.064509, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.376279, "worst_return": -0.197104, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.233294, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.160031, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.463533, "worst_return": -0.221225, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.217458, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.122795, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.690967, "worst_return": -0.206723, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"typical_volume": 3694154.45, "trend": 1290.054661, "fair_value": 814.629294, "relative_strength": 9.834969, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 3.64898, "energy": 17.997856, "activity_lines": [ 1324.200842, 1383.876071, 1429.012317, 1376.079191 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1426.03, "volume": 6309248, "typical_volume": 3880298.1, "trend": 1306.435648, "fair_value": 820.398425, "relative_strength": 15.962241, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.905212, "energy": 10.346426, "activity_lines": [ 1359.668667, 1381.972698, 1432.282367, 1384.851794 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1401.54, "volume": 4384396, "typical_volume": 3959385.3, "trend": 1321.246347, "fair_value": 826.229518, "relative_strength": 7.820143, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 19.204575, "energy": 10.685521, "activity_lines": [ 1379.332667, 1378.552655, 1431.432598, 1390.987558 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }