{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b19f9b63-dc7b-4e8b-9963-b58667a80fdf", "symbol": "HOVNP", "name": "Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. PFD DEP1/1000A", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 54.515, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.871, "architecture_energy": 28.882, "architecture_maturity": 10.457, "architecture_confidence": 95.497, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.14, "rotation_up": 29.07, "upward_expansion": 10.46, "deceleration": 38.58, "rotation_down": 42.77, "downward_expansion": 74.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.09336, 20.114884, 20.20857, 20.297326 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 19.75, "trend_reference": 20.375855, "distance_from_trend": -0.030716, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.532719, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.194601, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.269564, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.023384, "excess_performance": -0.210838, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.030716, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012579, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.194601, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.088022, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.132696, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042869, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.023384, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.483847, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 55959, "relative_activity": 2.539701, "balance": 0.483847, "dry_up": 1.507316, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025449, "annualized_volatility": 0.14446, "from_high_reference": -0.098174, "from_low_reference": 0.116777 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.375855, "fair_value_reference": 16.532719, "structural_low": 19.02, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.003956, "positive_rate": 0.55, "directional_follow_through": 0.55, "median_excess_return": -0.014661, "regime_survival": 0.85, "best_return": 0.136631, "worst_return": -0.068948, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.011382, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.043244, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.197395, "worst_return": -0.051726, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.025132, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.001268, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.183766, "worst_return": -0.03682, 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"relative_strength": -5.594863, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -20.804531, "energy": 17.753454, "activity_lines": [ 20.386018, 20.245662, 20.305078, 20.369473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.9, "volume": 35887, "typical_volume": 19552.25, "trend": 20.381197, "fair_value": 16.498615, "relative_strength": -8.442089, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.308476, "energy": 24.758065, "activity_lines": [ 20.26858, 20.191063, 20.261826, 20.338049 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.75, "volume": 55959, "typical_volume": 22033.7, "trend": 20.375855, "fair_value": 16.532719, "relative_strength": -13.269564, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.871481, "energy": 28.882049, "activity_lines": [ 20.09336, 20.114884, 20.20857, 20.297326 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }