{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b1a13710-a7d2-4b52-82be-7ed687430821", "symbol": "INDI", "name": "Amundi MSCI India Swap UCITS ETF EUR ACC", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 69.958, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 37.617, "architecture_energy": 24.616, "architecture_maturity": 10.141, "architecture_confidence": 49.803, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.08, "rotation_up": 47.89, "upward_expansion": 39.69, "deceleration": 39.75, "rotation_down": 26.49, "downward_expansion": 18.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.672, 25.611454, 25.338738, 25.277677 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 26.0, "trend_reference": 25.429667, "distance_from_trend": 0.022428, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 27.964006, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.070233, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -15.835825, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.042886, "excess_performance": -0.213778, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.022428, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031269, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.070233, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027134, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.158358, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033461, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.042886, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.837493, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 83931, "relative_activity": 0.491175, "balance": 0.837493, "dry_up": 0.795088, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02466, "annualized_volatility": 0.169733, "from_high_reference": -0.10283, "from_low_reference": 0.130926 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.429667, "fair_value_reference": 27.964006, "structural_low": 22.99, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.022797, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.025136, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.003169, "worst_return": -0.074995, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.056261, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": -0.144639, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.111136, "worst_return": -0.163648, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.061249, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.160591, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.081914, "worst_return": -0.085728, "sufficient": true }, { 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.02338, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.054031, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.047087, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.015754, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.020202, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", 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"modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 18.868379, "energy": 37.754307, "activity_lines": [ 25.646667, 25.394182, 25.144714, 25.262075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.205, "volume": 96121, "typical_volume": 186164.1, "trend": 25.557667, "fair_value": 27.934712, "relative_strength": -16.396142, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "down", "direction": -3.656276, "energy": 14.168881, "activity_lines": [ 25.481334, 25.400273, 25.167548, 25.233774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.719999, "volume": 115471, "typical_volume": 178551.05, "trend": 25.481833, "fair_value": 27.948141, "relative_strength": -14.738472, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 21.259189, "energy": 15.703556, "activity_lines": [ 25.522, 25.489, 25.241786, 25.244247 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.0, "volume": 83931, "typical_volume": 170877.85, "trend": 25.429667, "fair_value": 27.964006, "relative_strength": -15.835825, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 37.616697, "energy": 24.616004, "activity_lines": [ 25.672, 25.611454, 25.338738, 25.277677 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }