{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b1a92d1a-f050-4755-bd25-50aade043cc4", "symbol": "4544", "name": "Chun Zu Machinery Industry Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 64.823, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.304, "architecture_energy": 35.918, "architecture_maturity": 15.326, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.19, "rotation_up": 18.67, "upward_expansion": 5.08, "deceleration": 46.8, "rotation_down": 46.22, "downward_expansion": 73.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.856667, 13.995374, 14.144955, 14.426483 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 14.05, "trend_reference": 14.659449, "distance_from_trend": -0.041574, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.157596, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.13044, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -33.834607, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.027583, "excess_performance": -0.468955, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.041574, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005729, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.13044, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007886, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.338346, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04704, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.027583, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.309164, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2237, "relative_activity": 0.081322, "balance": 0.309164, "dry_up": 0.476735, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.060617, "annualized_volatility": 0.356065, "from_high_reference": -0.189652, "from_low_reference": 0.072519 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.659449, "fair_value_reference": 16.157596, "structural_low": 13.1, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.007854, "positive_rate": 0.423077, "directional_follow_through": 0.576923, "median_excess_return": -0.033897, "regime_survival": 0.807692, "best_return": 0.076471, "worst_return": -0.079908, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.020513, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.032213, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.160714, "worst_return": -0.135803, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.020328, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.075585, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.169972, "worst_return": -0.107306, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.043019, "energy": 20.878977, "activity_lines": [ 14.348407, 14.16994, 14.417553, 14.612695 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.65, "volume": 26139, "typical_volume": 30469.7, "trend": 14.657917, "fair_value": 16.195479, "relative_strength": -33.855501, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.523757, "energy": 23.389643, "activity_lines": [ 14.14, 14.095675, 14.310081, 14.545743 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.4, "volume": 17012, "typical_volume": 27556.8, "trend": 14.640625, "fair_value": 16.176091, "relative_strength": -35.624734, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.719185, "energy": 37.907525, "activity_lines": [ 13.853333, 13.983469, 14.190858, 14.464588 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 14.05, "volume": 2237, "typical_volume": 27507.95, "trend": 14.659449, "fair_value": 16.157596, "relative_strength": -33.834607, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.304105, "energy": 35.917666, "activity_lines": [ 13.856667, 13.995374, 14.144955, 14.426483 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }