{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b1ab4ad6-70c5-43dc-ae96-72278ba99dfb", "symbol": "603220", "name": "China Bester Group Telecom Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.021, "architecture_energy": 73.732, "architecture_maturity": 22.99, "architecture_confidence": 92.798, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.81, "rotation_up": 13.42, "upward_expansion": 17.22, "deceleration": 37.91, "rotation_down": 71.06, "downward_expansion": 92.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.713735, 19.688689, 22.597263, 23.924715 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 19.719999, "trend_reference": 25.037425, "distance_from_trend": -0.212379, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 23.094761, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.146127, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.794365, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.23861, "excess_performance": -0.195406, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.212379, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022714, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.146127, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.594846, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.177944, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.400013, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.23861, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.48959, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 200464970, "relative_activity": 1.257909, "balance": 0.48959, "dry_up": 0.753568, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.16525, "annualized_volatility": 0.688699, "from_high_reference": -0.429893, "from_low_reference": 0.202439 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.037425, "fair_value_reference": 23.094761, "structural_low": 16.4, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.019729, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.009364, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.166016, "worst_return": -0.084897, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.072611, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.001034, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.265306, "worst_return": -0.145363, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.05838, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.059247, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.342131, "worst_return": -0.164109, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.726687, "energy": 78.233573, "activity_lines": [ 19.892164, 21.637021, 24.515064, 25.181206 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.16, "volume": 112361413, "typical_volume": 173797040.9, "trend": 25.188758, "fair_value": 23.009832, "relative_strength": -22.464639, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.530488, "energy": 77.749365, "activity_lines": [ 18.931314, 20.656789, 23.782242, 24.72077 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.219999, "volume": 71537837, "typical_volume": 160677293.55, "trend": 25.090091, "fair_value": 23.050847, "relative_strength": -22.191062, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.86875, "energy": 79.000885, "activity_lines": [ 18.461132, 19.923648, 23.099276, 24.271173 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.719999, "volume": 200464970, "typical_volume": 159363665.2, "trend": 25.037425, "fair_value": 23.094761, "relative_strength": -17.794365, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.020935, "energy": 73.731633, "activity_lines": [ 18.713735, 19.688689, 22.597263, 23.924715 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }