{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b1ab6f7a-4324-4ae0-b9db-3529d338cad2", "symbol": "9925", "name": "Taiwan Shin Kong Security Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 77.624, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 69.251, "architecture_energy": 84.563, "architecture_maturity": 8.44, "architecture_confidence": 63.704, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.99, "rotation_up": 82.85, "upward_expansion": 98.33, "deceleration": 39.04, "rotation_down": 8.3, "downward_expansion": 20.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 40.083815, 39.717553, 39.236626, 39.06936 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 40.099998, "trend_reference": 38.913203, "distance_from_trend": 0.030499, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 37.202178, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.077894, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -26.851701, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.037821, "excess_performance": -0.403551, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.030499, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005785, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.077894, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038172, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.268517, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.066242, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.037821, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.673309, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2581449, "relative_activity": 1.602604, "balance": 1.673309, "dry_up": 1.978042, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.013189, "annualized_volatility": 0.049192, "from_high_reference": -0.015951, "from_low_reference": 0.052073 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 38.913203, "fair_value_reference": 37.202178, "structural_low": 38.115214, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": 0.00373, "positive_rate": 0.575, "directional_follow_through": 0.575, "median_excess_return": -0.00049, "regime_survival": 0.825, "best_return": 0.023776, "worst_return": -0.029963, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.019108, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": 0.013754, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.040244, "worst_return": -0.017857, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.025248, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.013621, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.057517, "worst_return": -0.001245, "sufficient": true }, { 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"rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 32.873383, "energy": 49.449594, "activity_lines": [ 39.054217, 38.85667, 38.715688, 38.717953 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 40.200001, "volume": 4175638, "typical_volume": 1362578.55, "trend": 38.776343, "fair_value": 37.095002, "relative_strength": -25.667687, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 88.840854, "energy": 84.415139, "activity_lines": [ 39.4795, 39.131035, 38.859403, 38.812853 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 40.299999, "volume": 3714674, "typical_volume": 1462529.5, "trend": 38.826963, "fair_value": 37.134571, "relative_strength": -23.708825, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.923779, "energy": 89.52662, "activity_lines": [ 39.837197, 39.388273, 39.00634, 38.911153 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 40.049999, "volume": 2273031, "typical_volume": 1531710.55, "trend": 38.870836, "fair_value": 37.168491, "relative_strength": -25.203379, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.322434, "energy": 85.751983, "activity_lines": [ 39.991287, 39.562063, 39.12201, 38.990059 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 40.099998, "volume": 2581449, "typical_volume": 1610784.05, "trend": 38.913203, "fair_value": 37.202178, "relative_strength": -26.851701, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.250849, "energy": 84.563155, "activity_lines": [ 40.083815, 39.717553, 39.236626, 39.06936 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }