{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b1aecf9c-9950-4b0b-b03f-14508a3de5af", "symbol": "INAA", "name": "iShares MSCI North America UCITS ETF USD (Dist)", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 93.105, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 84.269, "architecture_energy": 68.017, "architecture_maturity": 83.509, "architecture_confidence": 65.508, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.19, "rotation_up": 54.22, "upward_expansion": 83.0, "deceleration": 71.2, "rotation_down": 28.82, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 122.173333, 121.645784, 119.882644, 117.235575 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 124.639999, "trend_reference": 114.121239, "distance_from_trend": 0.092172, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 97.198244, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.282328, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.376042, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.154587, "excess_performance": -0.016305, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.092172, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039645, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.282328, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037546, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.03376, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004664, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.154587, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.03641, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16316, "relative_activity": 0.676436, "balance": 3.03641, "dry_up": 0.889211, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017801, "annualized_volatility": 0.114884, "from_high_reference": -0.001682, "from_low_reference": 0.239674 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 114.121239, "fair_value_reference": 97.198244, "structural_low": 103.120003, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": 0.008361, "positive_rate": 0.564103, "directional_follow_through": 0.564103, "median_excess_return": -0.007574, "regime_survival": 0.820513, "best_return": 0.082101, "worst_return": -0.10272, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.018685, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.003983, "regime_survival": 0.533333, "best_return": 0.10798, "worst_return": -0.178992, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.068546, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.010188, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.183106, "worst_return": -0.097107, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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120.931724, 119.069159, 116.527348 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 124.639999, "volume": 16316, "typical_volume": 24120.55, "trend": 114.121239, "fair_value": 97.198244, "relative_strength": -3.376042, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.269276, "energy": 68.01749, "activity_lines": [ 122.173333, 121.645784, 119.882644, 117.235575 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }