{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b1b0ed08-0845-40fa-aaad-544e9f5a0b2f", "symbol": "300145", "name": "Nanfang Pump Industry Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 86.909, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -14.641, "architecture_energy": 27.047, "architecture_maturity": 30.427, "architecture_confidence": 50.116, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.05, "rotation_up": 19.74, "upward_expansion": 19.51, "deceleration": 66.58, "rotation_down": 60.86, "downward_expansion": 39.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.479333, 4.823872, 4.868033, 4.858426 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 4.5, "trend_reference": 4.828605, "distance_from_trend": -0.068054, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.67595, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.224173, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.05505, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.017467, "excess_performance": -0.024867, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.068054, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033039, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.224173, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.200609, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.080551, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011729, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.017467, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.783088, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 335274909, "relative_activity": 0.818029, "balance": 1.783088, "dry_up": 1.12888, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.16562, "annualized_volatility": 0.704105, "from_high_reference": -0.333333, "from_low_reference": 0.219512 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.828605, "fair_value_reference": 3.67595, "structural_low": 3.93, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.050666, "positive_rate": 0.4375, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": 0.008044, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.328, "worst_return": -0.236398, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.019802, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.011306, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.189333, "worst_return": -0.207792, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.017794, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.027314, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.221333, "worst_return": -0.137809, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.110453, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.109218, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.275618, "worst_return": -0.052805, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.022284, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.008798, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005917, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.106195, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.226966, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.09505, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.002165, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.039832, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", 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"date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.68, "volume": 701892336, "typical_volume": 437101545.4, "trend": 4.870605, "fair_value": 3.648514, "relative_strength": -0.639757, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.197833, "energy": 47.703305, "activity_lines": [ 5.41, 5.220572, 5.051959, 4.972156 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.07, "volume": 499237926, "typical_volume": 433090596.4, "trend": 4.856271, "fair_value": 3.656142, "relative_strength": -13.850084, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.85399, "energy": 5.437003, "activity_lines": [ 4.94, 5.036225, 4.96673, 4.920504 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.23, "volume": 314313216, "typical_volume": 413879227.65, "trend": 4.835938, "fair_value": 3.665116, "relative_strength": -9.048878, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.361045, "energy": 19.911954, "activity_lines": [ 4.628, 4.898355, 4.902024, 4.8801 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.5, "volume": 335274909, "typical_volume": 409857138.5, "trend": 4.828605, "fair_value": 3.67595, "relative_strength": -8.05505, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -14.641311, "energy": 27.047113, "activity_lines": [ 4.479333, 4.823872, 4.868033, 4.858426 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }