{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b1b17af5-5ee5-4c3d-a13a-b5eacaca4c95", "symbol": "SAV", "name": "Savannah Resources Plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 61.18, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -0.878, "architecture_energy": 16.866, "architecture_maturity": 40.655, "architecture_confidence": 80.81, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.83, "rotation_up": 14.82, "upward_expansion": 42.07, "deceleration": 80.05, "rotation_down": 41.87, "downward_expansion": 36.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0579, 0.059736, 0.061911, 0.060039 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.057, "trend_reference": 0.057303, "distance_from_trend": -0.005293, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.040587, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.404384, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 5.867898, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.14, "excess_performance": 0.088765, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.005293, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.156942, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.404384, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.520591, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.058679, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.576775, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.14, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.6916, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 43456081, "relative_activity": 2.188393, "balance": 0.6916, "dry_up": 1.149175, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.107409, "annualized_volatility": 0.459197, "from_high_reference": -0.25974, "from_low_reference": 0.78125 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.057303, "fair_value_reference": 0.040587, "structural_low": 0.043, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.014219, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.009318, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.442308, "worst_return": -0.093023, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.244898, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.224384, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.25, "worst_return": -0.22093, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.146257, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.139074, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.265625, "worst_return": -0.55814, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.116279, 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"2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.066667, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.285714, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.03211, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.192771, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.052632, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.297297, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": 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"Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.844068, "energy": 21.445187, "activity_lines": [ 0.062233, 0.064313, 0.062475, 0.059435 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.063, "volume": 10250776, "typical_volume": 20015486.45, "trend": 0.055753, "fair_value": 0.040281, "relative_strength": 22.472806, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.236903, "energy": 17.687349, "activity_lines": [ 0.062567, 0.063671, 0.062843, 0.05996 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.059, "volume": 16555001, "typical_volume": 19144670.65, "trend": 0.056487, "fair_value": 0.040383, "relative_strength": 12.506822, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 12.851571, "energy": 9.819066, "activity_lines": [ 0.061433, 0.06252, 0.062776, 0.06017 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0545, "volume": 21017283, "typical_volume": 18421576.2, "trend": 0.057037, "fair_value": 0.040469, "relative_strength": 2.146718, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -7.502705, "energy": 14.60549, "activity_lines": [ 0.059033, 0.060733, 0.062238, 0.060042 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.057, "volume": 43456081, "typical_volume": 19857531.85, "trend": 0.057303, "fair_value": 0.040587, "relative_strength": 5.867898, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -0.878164, "energy": 16.866017, "activity_lines": [ 0.0579, 0.059736, 0.061911, 0.060039 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }