{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b1b21b5c-1f87-4919-ab24-9f2b88025dad", "symbol": "DAX3S", "name": "SG ETC DAX -3x Daily Short Collateralized", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -89.962, "architecture_energy": 91.412, "architecture_maturity": 43.463, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.6, "rotation_up": 20.92, "upward_expansion": 21.39, "deceleration": 37.28, "rotation_down": 65.59, "downward_expansion": 92.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.621333, 22.205, 23.094976, 24.220215 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 19.812, "trend_reference": 25.191733, "distance_from_trend": -0.213552, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 38.954491, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.491407, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -35.959462, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.251106, "excess_performance": -0.421997, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.213552, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.060588, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.491407, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.146562, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.359595, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.123983, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.251106, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.486895, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2087, "relative_activity": 4.107459, "balance": 0.486895, "dry_up": 1.065735, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.056291, "annualized_volatility": 0.572759, "from_high_reference": -0.447672, "from_low_reference": 0.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.191733, "fair_value_reference": 38.954491, "structural_low": 19.812, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": -0.00182, "positive_rate": 0.473684, "directional_follow_through": 0.526316, "median_excess_return": -0.006833, "regime_survival": 0.868421, "best_return": 0.445669, "worst_return": -0.322859, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.029558, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.047804, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.144097, "worst_return": -0.328111, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.123362, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.225788, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.444592, "worst_return": -0.358935, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.316537, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.532036, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.266385, "worst_return": -0.498024, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-01-12", "end": "2024-03-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.165939, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-03-15", "end": "2024-04-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.006305, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-04-19", "end": "2024-05-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.127105, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.052915, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.031697, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.042642, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.511168, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.090649, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.030526, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.611308, "energy": 51.758922, "activity_lines": [ 23.745999, 23.967272, 25.482214, 25.839366 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 23.334999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 946.05, "trend": 26.100333, "fair_value": 38.146112, "relative_strength": -25.215845, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.308212, "energy": 51.851922, "activity_lines": [ 23.663999, 23.797454, 25.207309, 25.649656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 20.91, "volume": 510, "typical_volume": 920.6, "trend": 25.869167, "fair_value": 38.273364, "relative_strength": -34.273846, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.384936, "energy": 72.165135, "activity_lines": [ 22.776333, 23.205272, 24.716309, 25.314796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 23.290001, "volume": 1449, "typical_volume": 844.65, "trend": 25.732167, "fair_value": 38.416401, "relative_strength": -25.923403, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.890119, "energy": 72.209711, "activity_lines": [ 22.813333, 23.140818, 24.471452, 25.148398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 23.290001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 744.3, "trend": 25.608333, "fair_value": 38.559596, "relative_strength": -24.313997, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.328278, "energy": 75.86348, "activity_lines": [ 22.823, 23.119182, 24.229905, 24.990839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.290001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 630.55, "trend": 25.484833, "fair_value": 38.703119, "relative_strength": -23.646696, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.289685, "energy": 74.83221, "activity_lines": [ 22.975667, 23.116364, 23.99081, 24.841269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.379999, "volume": 79, "typical_volume": 494.1, "trend": 25.3335, "fair_value": 38.833809, "relative_strength": -29.606682, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.556612, "energy": 71.603512, "activity_lines": [ 22.494667, 22.785091, 23.598238, 24.576441 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.812, "volume": 2087, "typical_volume": 508.1, "trend": 25.191733, "fair_value": 38.954491, "relative_strength": -35.959462, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -89.962451, "energy": 91.412105, "activity_lines": [ 21.621333, 22.205, 23.094976, 24.220215 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }