{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b1b43c64-fe81-407b-81e2-544476d30669", "symbol": "002501", "name": "Jilin Liyuan Precision Manufacturing Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.343, "architecture_energy": 51.135, "architecture_maturity": 73.18, "architecture_confidence": 92.235, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.12, "rotation_up": 24.8, "upward_expansion": 7.79, "deceleration": 50.23, "rotation_down": 53.94, "downward_expansion": 81.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.264667, 1.299455, 1.386524, 1.515097 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1.3, "trend_reference": 1.739667, "distance_from_trend": -0.25273, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.704038, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.237106, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -38.280905, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.444444, "excess_performance": -0.451844, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.25273, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.161202, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.237106, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023916, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.382809, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.152312, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.444444, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.121767, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 235191144, "relative_activity": 0.903631, "balance": 1.121767, "dry_up": 0.572179, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.134911, "annualized_volatility": 0.607884, "from_high_reference": -0.566667, "from_low_reference": 0.092437 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.739667, "fair_value_reference": 1.704038, "structural_low": 1.19, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": -0.036269, "positive_rate": 0.351351, "directional_follow_through": 0.621622, "median_excess_return": -0.010047, "regime_survival": 0.918919, "best_return": 0.338583, "worst_return": -0.317204, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.078419, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.032865, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.281818, "worst_return": -0.231959, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.137092, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.012817, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.451923, "worst_return": -0.251799, "sufficient": true }, { 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"trend": 1.893667, "fair_value": 1.710064, "relative_strength": -43.803904, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.498586, "energy": 58.33099, "activity_lines": [ 1.342, 1.402, 1.508857, 1.665204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.28, "volume": 147157580, "typical_volume": 296624512.05, "trend": 1.861667, "fair_value": 1.708974, "relative_strength": -38.914734, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.255515, "energy": 61.790096, "activity_lines": [ 1.313333, 1.377273, 1.474714, 1.625613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.2, "volume": 120260800, "typical_volume": 280620688.1, "trend": 1.822, "fair_value": 1.706987, "relative_strength": -42.249464, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.780919, "energy": 65.430558, "activity_lines": [ 1.272, 1.337818, 1.436952, 1.582925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.25, "volume": 93082650, "typical_volume": 269661794.35, "trend": 1.779333, "fair_value": 1.705513, "relative_strength": -38.212915, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.283541, "energy": 59.870275, "activity_lines": [ 1.26, 1.312182, 1.407714, 1.546022 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.3, "volume": 235191144, "typical_volume": 260273417.5, "trend": 1.739667, "fair_value": 1.704038, "relative_strength": -38.280905, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.343033, "energy": 51.134533, "activity_lines": [ 1.264667, 1.299455, 1.386524, 1.515097 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }