{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b1bbd566-45e3-4f79-a6d1-a2bb9d42459a", "symbol": "PSM", "name": "ProSiebenSat.1 Media SE", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -31.339, "architecture_energy": 20.213, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 76.399, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.91, "rotation_up": 29.59, "upward_expansion": 17.26, "deceleration": 43.97, "rotation_down": 24.77, "downward_expansion": 60.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.6876, 3.632436, 3.715337, 3.842263 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 3.886, "trend_reference": 4.073864, "distance_from_trend": -0.046114, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.640564, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.311062, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -24.563588, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.175949, "excess_performance": -0.240589, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.046114, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.090539, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.311062, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039927, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.245636, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.068726, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.175949, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.646714, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1389771, "relative_activity": 1.798031, "balance": 1.646714, "dry_up": 1.404887, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.066584, "annualized_volatility": 0.354262, "from_high_reference": -0.538609, "from_low_reference": 0.169777 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.073864, "fair_value_reference": 5.640564, "structural_low": 3.322, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": -0.02579, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.034608, "regime_survival": 0.9, "best_return": 0.242078, "worst_return": -0.219794, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.059295, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.099362, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.183679, "worst_return": -0.264156, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.210811, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.129778, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.253588, "worst_return": -0.344323, "sufficient": true }, { 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"activity_lines": [ 3.541467, 3.637149, 3.789477, 3.971667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.584, "volume": 946020, "typical_volume": 768600.95, "trend": 4.189004, "fair_value": 5.728166, "relative_strength": -29.809033, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.916977, "energy": 62.792463, "activity_lines": [ 3.5452, 3.613264, 3.756139, 3.930086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.582, "volume": 633673, "typical_volume": 744367.85, "trend": 4.148317, "fair_value": 5.694948, "relative_strength": -29.647819, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.277059, "energy": 48.528431, "activity_lines": [ 3.557067, 3.594764, 3.727643, 3.890924 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.614, "volume": 1374113, "typical_volume": 765640.9, "trend": 4.105932, "fair_value": 5.668039, "relative_strength": -29.173447, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.46467, "energy": 41.442754, "activity_lines": [ 3.583733, 3.585927, 3.706803, 3.856452 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.886, "volume": 1389771, "typical_volume": 772940.4, "trend": 4.073864, "fair_value": 5.640564, "relative_strength": -24.563588, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.338857, "energy": 20.212959, "activity_lines": [ 3.6876, 3.632436, 3.715337, 3.842263 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }