{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b1c69ec7-d3d6-4f52-8916-617bb45442ef", "symbol": "XCNS", "name": "iShares Core Conservative Balanced ETF Portfolio", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 68.233, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 59.275, "architecture_energy": 36.779, "architecture_maturity": 46.314, "architecture_confidence": 67.866, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.64, "rotation_up": 39.85, "upward_expansion": 66.65, "deceleration": 84.78, "rotation_down": 27.0, "downward_expansion": 16.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.424, 26.443612, 26.289985, 26.080883 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 26.65, "trend_reference": 25.857576, "distance_from_trend": 0.030646, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.050987, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.156133, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.294447, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.043365, "excess_performance": -0.077057, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.030646, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01464, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.156133, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003177, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.072944, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003823, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.043365, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.046991, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 55900, "relative_activity": 0.794316, "balance": 1.046991, "dry_up": 0.956306, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.012071, "annualized_volatility": 0.07574, "from_high_reference": -0.005226, "from_low_reference": 0.101947 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.857576, "fair_value_reference": 23.050987, "structural_low": 24.66776, "invalidation": "A decisive 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"trend": 25.67875, "fair_value": 22.83205, "relative_strength": -5.841425, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.997709, "energy": 79.502444, "activity_lines": [ 26.522577, 26.364577, 26.033755, 25.869083 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 26.540001, "volume": 59800, "typical_volume": 73975.0, "trend": 25.721927, "fair_value": 22.876647, "relative_strength": -6.092511, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.206655, "energy": 72.511866, "activity_lines": [ 26.539916, 26.427094, 26.104301, 25.924647 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 26.280001, "volume": 73300, "typical_volume": 73100.0, "trend": 25.753781, "fair_value": 22.919217, "relative_strength": -6.616467, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.286749, "energy": 49.870948, "activity_lines": [ 26.463927, 26.425369, 26.146825, 25.960652 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 26.27, "volume": 85300, "typical_volume": 73955.0, "trend": 25.781983, "fair_value": 22.961662, "relative_strength": -6.633863, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.588077, "energy": 40.476498, "activity_lines": [ 26.388, 26.415175, 26.186683, 25.993956 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.299999, "volume": 54700, "typical_volume": 73405.0, "trend": 25.820655, "fair_value": 23.005083, "relative_strength": -5.830735, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.77005, "energy": 30.371579, "activity_lines": [ 26.343333, 26.40018, 26.224607, 26.027377 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.65, "volume": 55900, "typical_volume": 70375.0, "trend": 25.857576, "fair_value": 23.050987, "relative_strength": -7.294447, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.274527, "energy": 36.779418, "activity_lines": [ 26.424, 26.443612, 26.289985, 26.080883 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }