{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b1cd0a61-f13c-4901-b011-f5a3c3113f16", "symbol": "ECF", "name": "Mountain Alliance AG", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 26.404, "architecture_energy": 22.131, "architecture_maturity": 53.107, "architecture_confidence": 87.728, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.28, "rotation_up": 21.35, "upward_expansion": 54.5, "deceleration": 90.15, "rotation_down": 36.41, "downward_expansion": 20.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.742667, 2.800909, 2.786476, 2.698194 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 2.76, "trend_reference": 2.596667, "distance_from_trend": 0.062901, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.607115, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.058641, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.692971, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.140496, "excess_performance": 0.075856, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.062901, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.05185, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.058641, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.06322, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.01693, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016978, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.140496, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.643777, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1539, "relative_activity": 0.117366, "balance": 1.643777, "dry_up": 0.741032, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.064103, "annualized_volatility": 0.372316, "from_high_reference": -0.183432, "from_low_reference": 0.366337 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.596667, "fair_value_reference": 2.607115, "structural_low": 2.02, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.028846, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.007696, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.110092, "worst_return": -0.097222, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.049424, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.087813, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.078629, "worst_return": -0.146154, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.044579, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.091973, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.008065, "worst_return": -0.097222, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.093526, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.155214, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.034722, "worst_return": -0.221774, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.057971, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.084615, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.094203, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.007407, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.046512, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.248619, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.055118, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.066667, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.113821, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.036697, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.136792, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.031142, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.010989, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.029851, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 3.0, "volume": 10711, "typical_volume": 7102.65, "trend": 3.1, "fair_value": 4.320128, "relative_strength": -15.174607, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.374798, "energy": 16.921832, 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"date": "2026-06-12", "close": 2.73, "volume": 3031, "typical_volume": 16976.95, "trend": 2.495, "fair_value": 2.618974, "relative_strength": 6.474667, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.472393, "energy": 40.460962, "activity_lines": [ 2.777333, 2.754, 2.606524, 2.55043 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 2.85, "volume": 5738, "typical_volume": 16661.75, "trend": 2.51, "fair_value": 2.618141, "relative_strength": 9.436627, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.625033, "energy": 41.459846, "activity_lines": [ 2.804667, 2.776, 2.637333, 2.573333 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 2.98, "volume": 1675, "typical_volume": 15903.7, "trend": 2.53, "fair_value": 2.617244, "relative_strength": 15.707361, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.362198, "energy": 44.401675, "activity_lines": [ 2.862667, 2.813636, 2.68, 2.603656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 2.98, "volume": 252, "typical_volume": 14729.15, "trend": 2.547333, "fair_value": 2.616346, "relative_strength": 11.485189, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.864711, "energy": 50.89384, "activity_lines": [ 2.907333, 2.849636, 2.72, 2.632688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 2.92, "volume": 2101, "typical_volume": 14524.1, "trend": 2.559333, "fair_value": 2.614808, "relative_strength": 12.477258, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.192259, "energy": 54.126628, "activity_lines": [ 2.926, 2.871455, 2.752095, 2.656731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.8, "volume": 25803, "typical_volume": 15179.75, "trend": 2.570667, "fair_value": 2.614167, "relative_strength": 8.981318, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.575231, "energy": 57.402699, "activity_lines": [ 2.895333, 2.868, 2.770571, 2.672258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.7, "volume": 11434, "typical_volume": 14416.2, "trend": 2.580667, "fair_value": 2.611859, "relative_strength": 4.090618, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.105453, "energy": 29.635312, "activity_lines": [ 2.826667, 2.843091, 2.777048, 2.680602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.68, "volume": 92, "typical_volume": 14146.85, "trend": 2.586667, "fair_value": 2.609167, "relative_strength": 1.399798, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.327115, "energy": 20.402183, "activity_lines": [ 2.761333, 2.813818, 2.779143, 2.687011 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.76, "volume": 1539, "typical_volume": 13112.8, "trend": 2.596667, "fair_value": 2.607115, "relative_strength": 1.692971, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.403537, "energy": 22.131448, "activity_lines": [ 2.742667, 2.800909, 2.786476, 2.698194 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }