{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b1cee630-74e8-4502-84f8-63d3ffce6a19", "symbol": "MDB", "name": "MongoDB, Inc.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 67.545, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 52.293, "architecture_energy": 36.529, "architecture_maturity": 27.716, "architecture_confidence": 68.625, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.21, "rotation_up": 44.48, "upward_expansion": 49.63, "deceleration": 36.59, "rotation_down": 31.48, "downward_expansion": 12.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 5913.876595, 5845.859961, 5648.677362, 5480.801843 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 6584.029785, "trend_reference": 5493.831999, "distance_from_trend": 0.19844, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5539.28504, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.188606, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 10.500525, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.128376, "excess_performance": 0.183043, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.19844, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062962, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.188606, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.264633, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.105005, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.234484, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.128376, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 8.19891, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 190, "relative_activity": 0.352243, "balance": 8.19891, "dry_up": 0.203003, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.066631, "annualized_volatility": 0.647877, "from_high_reference": -0.129097, "from_low_reference": 0.739616 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5493.831999, "fair_value_reference": 5539.28504, "structural_low": 3813.0, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.076694, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.140437, "worst_return": -0.213233, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.370807, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.398669, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.039539, "worst_return": -0.371841, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.217477, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.304708, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.254296, "worst_return": -0.530623, "sufficient": false }, { 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{ "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.181425, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.522757, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.136918, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", 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13.730816, "activity_lines": [ 5720.333333, 5798.581818, 5451.113053, 5422.588718 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5532.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 650.6, "trend": 5577.631006, "fair_value": 5545.990682, "relative_strength": -5.757585, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 13.060766, "energy": 14.077718, "activity_lines": [ 5659.4, 5754.690909, 5487.423433, 5415.283492 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5532.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 532.6, "trend": 5522.864339, "fair_value": 5538.118183, "relative_strength": -6.558453, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 9.841856, "energy": 10.796277, "activity_lines": [ 5614.666667, 5704.036364, 5519.771908, 5412.339556 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6584.029785, "volume": 190, "typical_volume": 539.4, "trend": 5493.831999, "fair_value": 5539.28504, "relative_strength": 10.500525, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 52.292529, "energy": 36.528521, "activity_lines": [ 5913.876595, 5845.859961, 5648.677362, 5480.801843 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }