{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b1d0587c-aa84-4fbf-abe7-93cbc7985996", "symbol": "DWSN", "name": "Dawson Geophysical Company", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 33.696, "architecture_energy": 23.133, "architecture_maturity": 92.783, "architecture_confidence": 94.671, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.55, "rotation_up": 26.12, "upward_expansion": 57.22, "deceleration": 88.33, "rotation_down": 31.64, "downward_expansion": 18.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.790667, 5.071636, 4.638238, 4.250645 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 4.35, "trend_reference": 3.713667, "distance_from_trend": 0.171349, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.977681, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.199546, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 35.025674, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.933333, "excess_performance": 0.74588, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.171349, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.401736, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.199546, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.365573, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.350257, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.066424, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.933333, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.365324, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 474507, "relative_activity": 0.594145, "balance": 1.365324, "dry_up": 1.544424, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.289848, "annualized_volatility": 1.50461, "from_high_reference": -0.44586, "from_low_reference": 2.438735 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.713667, "fair_value_reference": 1.977681, "structural_low": 2.055, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.035006, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": -0.062417, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.652174, "worst_return": -0.425363, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.245726, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.20308, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.661836, "worst_return": -0.359223, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.275, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.345964, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.775956, "worst_return": -0.444444, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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3.668774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 7.57, "volume": 1766710, "typical_volume": 777957.15, "trend": 3.322333, "fair_value": 1.898311, "relative_strength": 151.924592, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 94.798226, "energy": 96.052048, "activity_lines": [ 6.040667, 5.235818, 4.408143, 3.955312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.48, "volume": 2884327, "typical_volume": 896845.9, "trend": 3.416667, "fair_value": 1.916443, "relative_strength": 52.905394, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.346532, "energy": 66.457103, "activity_lines": [ 5.686667, 5.200182, 4.45981, 4.03 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.98, "volume": 870428, "typical_volume": 903794.4, "trend": 3.526, "fair_value": 1.938017, "relative_strength": 69.040784, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.756877, "energy": 48.415229, "activity_lines": [ 5.509333, 5.231091, 4.554048, 4.13086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.66, "volume": 704479, "typical_volume": 882700.65, "trend": 3.627333, "fair_value": 1.958142, "relative_strength": 54.441949, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.217259, "energy": 32.860908, "activity_lines": [ 5.179333, 5.184364, 4.611476, 4.204022 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.35, "volume": 474507, "typical_volume": 798637.9, "trend": 3.713667, "fair_value": 1.977681, "relative_strength": 35.025674, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.695594, "energy": 23.132559, "activity_lines": [ 4.790667, 5.071636, 4.638238, 4.250645 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }