{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b1d64448-ed67-4cf4-8036-b853da17923b", "symbol": "STLAP", "name": "Stellantis N.V.", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -69.969, "architecture_energy": 59.092, "architecture_maturity": 77.26, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.69, "rotation_up": 23.26, "upward_expansion": 9.73, "deceleration": 53.85, "rotation_down": 58.91, "downward_expansion": 83.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.926567, 5.035291, 5.553238, 5.812875 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.7965, "trend_reference": 6.238083, "distance_from_trend": -0.231094, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.846553, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.595114, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -39.385473, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.214975, "excess_performance": -0.268287, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.231094, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.182912, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.595114, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.11525, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.393855, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.185154, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.214975, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.421678, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 33156821, "relative_activity": 1.699378, "balance": 0.421678, "dry_up": 1.420451, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.103601, "annualized_volatility": 0.456923, "from_high_reference": -0.542929, "from_low_reference": 0.04442 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.238083, "fair_value_reference": 11.846553, "structural_low": 4.5925, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.006677, "positive_rate": 0.464286, "directional_follow_through": 0.535714, "median_excess_return": -0.018783, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.258353, "worst_return": -0.253874, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.022144, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.018087, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.222345, "worst_return": -0.375814, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.064091, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.025204, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.376363, "worst_return": -0.34106, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"activity_lines": [ 5.014067, 5.400545, 5.862752, 6.126566 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.009, "volume": 16621536, "typical_volume": 18854830.55, "trend": 6.5495, "fair_value": 11.975026, "relative_strength": -35.363323, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.140425, "energy": 78.091675, "activity_lines": [ 4.985867, 5.266891, 5.7627, 6.017688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.97, "volume": 35201464, "typical_volume": 18928318.6, "trend": 6.3916, "fair_value": 11.908598, "relative_strength": -36.343115, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.062577, "energy": 62.779017, "activity_lines": [ 4.983333, 5.152855, 5.664471, 5.915785 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.7965, "volume": 33156821, "typical_volume": 19511146.25, "trend": 6.238083, "fair_value": 11.846553, "relative_strength": -39.385473, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.969355, "energy": 59.09227, "activity_lines": [ 4.926567, 5.035291, 5.553238, 5.812875 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }