{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b1d70ed8-61bd-407a-b3ab-1414f6f21539", "symbol": "CARD", "name": "Card Factory plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 80.165, "architecture_energy": 80.966, "architecture_maturity": 18.639, "architecture_confidence": 63.879, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.32, "rotation_up": 82.1, "upward_expansion": 95.66, "deceleration": 39.08, "rotation_down": 9.32, "downward_expansion": 17.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.735267, 0.7096, 0.684249, 0.670551 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.763, "trend_reference": 0.658901, "distance_from_trend": 0.157989, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.830048, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.080776, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.704032, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.146727, "excess_performance": 0.095492, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.157989, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.04654, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.080776, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.157203, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.07704, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.181198, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.146727, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.939955, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5766822, "relative_activity": 1.095387, "balance": 1.939955, "dry_up": 1.649437, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.058646, "annualized_volatility": 0.239942, "from_high_reference": -0.296092, "from_low_reference": 0.378824 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.658901, "fair_value_reference": 0.830048, "structural_low": 0.55337, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.026259, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.040687, "regime_survival": 0.619048, "best_return": 0.212988, "worst_return": -0.357447, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.02371, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.039624, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.105196, "worst_return": -0.356476, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.041789, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.066288, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.151949, "worst_return": -0.171758, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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0.830928, "relative_strength": -15.177441, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.609712, "energy": 58.421286, "activity_lines": [ 0.693733, 0.680817, 0.663799, 0.65698 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.753, "volume": 16245018, "typical_volume": 5532070.4, "trend": 0.654761, "fair_value": 0.830914, "relative_strength": -9.451775, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.268251, "energy": 75.071602, "activity_lines": [ 0.715733, 0.695018, 0.673829, 0.663568 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.763, "volume": 5766822, "typical_volume": 5264643.05, "trend": 0.658901, "fair_value": 0.830048, "relative_strength": -7.704032, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.165319, "energy": 80.965873, "activity_lines": [ 0.735267, 0.7096, 0.684249, 0.670551 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }