{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b1df9d14-ddd0-4219-9564-070dd63f50af", "symbol": "600391", "name": "Aecc Aero Science and Technology Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.849, "architecture_energy": 70.2, "architecture_maturity": 28.007, "architecture_confidence": 88.682, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.91, "rotation_up": 13.43, "upward_expansion": 15.37, "deceleration": 40.06, "rotation_down": 68.66, "downward_expansion": 88.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.534, 30.062363, 33.26319, 35.982 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 30.77, "trend_reference": 39.707667, "distance_from_trend": -0.225087, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 24.659615, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.247789, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.673544, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.407129, "excess_performance": -0.363925, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.225087, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013959, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.247789, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.546933, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.116735, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.286193, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.407129, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.624185, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 53958071, "relative_activity": 0.969669, "balance": 0.624185, "dry_up": 1.01511, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.146171, "annualized_volatility": 0.594721, "from_high_reference": -0.472303, "from_low_reference": 0.226874 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 39.707667, "fair_value_reference": 24.659615, "structural_low": 25.24, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.006525, "positive_rate": 0.578947, "directional_follow_through": 0.421053, "median_excess_return": 0.027094, "regime_survival": 0.736842, "best_return": 0.249666, "worst_return": -0.110615, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.041427, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.001284, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.328094, "worst_return": -0.098298, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.148052, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.099603, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.211528, "worst_return": -0.078528, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"trend": 40.457667, "fair_value": 24.537757, "relative_strength": -13.273468, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.70602, "energy": 65.301004, "activity_lines": [ 33.095333, 34.635454, 36.950333, 39.168839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 26.92, "volume": 75201498, "typical_volume": 62147975.55, "trend": 40.395667, "fair_value": 24.555769, "relative_strength": -19.615067, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.815102, "energy": 73.116827, "activity_lines": [ 30.862666, 32.888, 35.767571, 38.295441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 26.209999, "volume": 51780197, "typical_volume": 58807641.75, "trend": 40.224, "fair_value": 24.575577, "relative_strength": -22.543555, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.562058, "energy": 74.859327, "activity_lines": [ 28.932666, 31.295999, 34.638047, 37.380236 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.700001, "volume": 45006845, "typical_volume": 55640622.8, "trend": 39.918667, "fair_value": 24.605705, "relative_strength": -18.399395, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.243409, "energy": 78.81188, "activity_lines": [ 28.093333, 30.255818, 33.766809, 36.572237 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 30.77, "volume": 53958071, "typical_volume": 55645868.55, "trend": 39.707667, "fair_value": 24.659615, "relative_strength": -11.673544, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.848626, "energy": 70.199579, "activity_lines": [ 28.534, 30.062363, 33.26319, 35.982 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }