{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b1e1f5d6-a565-4da3-9cc4-f21230d661b1", "symbol": "IWRD", "name": "iShares MSCI World UCITS ETF USD (Dist)", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 92.422, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 84.845, "architecture_energy": 68.272, "architecture_maturity": 78.453, "architecture_confidence": 65.508, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.81, "rotation_up": 54.99, "upward_expansion": 82.96, "deceleration": 71.09, "rotation_down": 28.29, "downward_expansion": 11.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 90.545999, 90.132624, 88.808106, 87.051988 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 92.389999, "trend_reference": 85.015188, "distance_from_trend": 0.086747, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 72.310624, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.277682, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.627851, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.136335, "excess_performance": -0.034557, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.086747, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039367, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.277682, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041796, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.036279, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002013, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.136335, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.811486, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 34639, "relative_activity": 0.60644, "balance": 3.811486, "dry_up": 0.715568, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017252, "annualized_volatility": 0.108615, "from_high_reference": -0.001729, "from_low_reference": 0.232294 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 85.015188, "fair_value_reference": 72.310624, "structural_low": 77.379997, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": 0.010201, "positive_rate": 0.641026, "directional_follow_through": 0.641026, "median_excess_return": -0.003906, "regime_survival": 0.846154, "best_return": 0.065707, "worst_return": -0.082009, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.027419, "positive_rate": 0.769231, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": 7e-06, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.098678, "worst_return": -0.151588, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.082891, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.008513, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.148287, "worst_return": -0.076565, "sufficient": true }, { 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64.679156, "energy": 75.594542, "activity_lines": [ 89.919334, 89.424758, 87.465158, 85.871272 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 89.93, "volume": 57779, "typical_volume": 79654.5, "trend": 84.394192, "fair_value": 71.868157, "relative_strength": -2.949619, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.390984, "energy": 67.319426, "activity_lines": [ 89.963334, 89.60092, 87.899195, 86.248816 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 89.139999, "volume": 26469, "typical_volume": 72587.45, "trend": 84.686639, "fair_value": 72.077603, "relative_strength": -4.347299, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.971145, "energy": 58.872024, "activity_lines": [ 89.723333, 89.579393, 88.218874, 86.554997 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 92.389999, "volume": 34639, "typical_volume": 57118.6, "trend": 85.015188, "fair_value": 72.310624, "relative_strength": -3.627851, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.844999, "energy": 68.271726, "activity_lines": [ 90.545999, 90.132624, 88.808106, 87.051988 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }