{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b1e460a1-3410-425d-acae-971a1ec1a061", "symbol": "GKWLIMITED", "name": "GKW Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1a", "phase_label": "Stage 1A \u00b7 Bottoming", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 49.66, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -20.246, "architecture_energy": 27.344, "architecture_maturity": 35.197, "architecture_confidence": 56.273, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.57, "rotation_up": 17.01, "upward_expansion": 17.35, "deceleration": 63.69, "rotation_down": 63.37, "downward_expansion": 42.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 1649.073315, 1697.361807, 1706.932377, 1686.972471 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 1628.699951, "trend_reference": 1672.760002, "distance_from_trend": -0.02634, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1975.900961, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.175718, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.889396, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.039908, "excess_performance": 0.003801, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.02634, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004777, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.175718, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.105288, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.028894, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.087454, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.039908, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.328049, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2060, "relative_activity": 0.973834, "balance": 0.328049, "dry_up": 1.054317, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.064247, "annualized_volatility": 0.302793, "from_high_reference": -0.179662, "from_low_reference": 0.184509 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1672.760002, "fair_value_reference": 1975.900961, "structural_low": 1375.0, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.013123, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": 0.023203, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.716068, "worst_return": -0.110231, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.155784, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.067012, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.448956, "worst_return": -0.212091, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.149218, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.093702, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.524412, "worst_return": 0.074518, "sufficient": false }, 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"rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.074178, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.08534, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.033826, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.05283, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.057341, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.109056, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.078928, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.082936, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.087664, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1099.0, "volume": 13000, "typical_volume": 24802.35, "trend": 658.394999, "fair_value": 593.71827, "relative_strength": 65.619324, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": 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15.239452, "energy": 16.970792, "activity_lines": [ 1700.966642, 1741.423624, 1715.423805, 1693.027525 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1630.800049, "volume": 2458, "typical_volume": 2064.35, "trend": 1675.140002, "fair_value": 1971.976923, "relative_strength": -2.056145, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -7.950082, "energy": 16.841757, "activity_lines": [ 1670.146663, 1718.52727, 1711.399048, 1689.968604 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1628.699951, "volume": 2060, "typical_volume": 2115.35, "trend": 1672.760002, "fair_value": 1975.900961, "relative_strength": -2.889396, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.245864, "energy": 27.34406, "activity_lines": [ 1649.073315, 1697.361807, 1706.932377, 1686.972471 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }