{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b1e90144-911b-4303-b486-2bcd7cebeb58", "symbol": "FTGQ", "name": "FTGF-Vest NASDAQ100 MB ETF-DecR", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 81.501, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 63.945, "architecture_energy": 58.535, "architecture_maturity": 71.257, "architecture_confidence": 62.378, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.83, "rotation_up": 48.38, "upward_expansion": 72.5, "deceleration": 65.5, "rotation_down": 27.89, "downward_expansion": 22.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.178333, 21.181454, 20.9733, 20.637013 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 21.295, "trend_reference": 20.219033, "distance_from_trend": 0.053216, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.192965, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.109521, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.282686, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.108076, "excess_performance": 0.043436, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.053216, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029842, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.109521, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02338, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.002827, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.067267, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.108076, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.369924, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 113, "relative_activity": 0.18377, "balance": 4.369924, "dry_up": 0.32241, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.010927, "annualized_volatility": 0.078382, "from_high_reference": -0.003276, "from_low_reference": 0.154576 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.219033, "fair_value_reference": 19.192965, "structural_low": 18.997999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.01177, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.005949, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.01177, "worst_return": -0.01177, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.002589, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-12-27", "close": 20.080999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-01-03", "close": 19.518, "volume": 4737, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-01-10", 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null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 21.184999, "volume": 20, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 21.24, "volume": 94, "typical_volume": 839.15, "trend": 19.9343, "fair_value": 19.068025, "relative_strength": 2.438476, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.519897, "energy": 80.426198, "activity_lines": [ 21.167, 21.036091, 20.581309, 20.269916 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 21.32, "volume": 339, "typical_volume": 855.4, "trend": 19.9989, "fair_value": 19.095827, "relative_strength": 5.484239, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.576439, "energy": 88.040169, "activity_lines": [ 21.232666, 21.116182, 20.689581, 20.359316 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 21.145, "volume": 150, "typical_volume": 799.5, "trend": 20.054933, "fair_value": 19.120817, "relative_strength": 5.366945, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.572295, "energy": 72.061056, "activity_lines": [ 21.222333, 21.143364, 20.771462, 20.433258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.209999, "volume": 530, "typical_volume": 721.1, "trend": 20.114667, "fair_value": 19.145988, "relative_strength": 4.339233, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.199521, "energy": 65.900645, "activity_lines": [ 21.217, 21.170182, 20.850147, 20.507778 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.99, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 609.25, "trend": 20.1672, "fair_value": 19.16794, "relative_strength": 1.036781, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.593326, "energy": 57.166087, "activity_lines": [ 21.140333, 21.148727, 20.900433, 20.564251 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.295, "volume": 113, "typical_volume": 614.9, "trend": 20.219033, "fair_value": 19.192965, "relative_strength": -0.282686, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.945314, "energy": 58.534569, "activity_lines": [ 21.178333, 21.181454, 20.9733, 20.637013 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }