{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b1f2e166-906c-455d-a812-b5f0471b77bd", "symbol": "IP", "name": "International Paper", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 67.299, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 41.286, "architecture_energy": 52.29, "architecture_maturity": 18.232, "architecture_confidence": 58.839, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.68, "rotation_up": 66.06, "upward_expansion": 56.72, "deceleration": 28.43, "rotation_down": 18.29, "downward_expansion": 17.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 40.716667, 39.571091, 37.17826, 36.962973 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 41.58, "trend_reference": 37.700437, "distance_from_trend": 0.102905, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 40.650222, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.022873, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.454292, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.084714, "excess_performance": -0.210339, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.102905, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002139, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.022873, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.207979, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.064543, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.248693, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.084714, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.173146, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 21156508, "relative_activity": 0.68154, "balance": 2.173146, "dry_up": 0.928914, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.076533, "annualized_volatility": 0.432444, "from_high_reference": -0.151562, "from_low_reference": 0.442057 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 37.700437, "fair_value_reference": 40.650222, "structural_low": 28.833805, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.041632, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.028487, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.09623, "worst_return": -0.233443, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.208481, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.213025, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.060389, "worst_return": -0.377288, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.075714, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.179048, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.052019, "worst_return": -0.099409, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"gate": "mixed", "direction": 21.004086, "energy": 35.677215, "activity_lines": [ 38.015333, 36.864168, 35.377817, 36.213723 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 42.16, "volume": 33275276, "typical_volume": 31696453.55, "trend": 37.670885, "fair_value": 40.523972, "relative_strength": -1.908858, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 41.956283, "energy": 54.47239, "activity_lines": [ 39.411333, 38.089636, 36.05532, 36.510345 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 40.83, "volume": 34838837, "typical_volume": 31743967.15, "trend": 37.723388, "fair_value": 40.582337, "relative_strength": -5.491655, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 30.762716, "energy": 44.293163, "activity_lines": [ 40.008, 38.848909, 36.590891, 36.714159 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 41.58, "volume": 21156508, "typical_volume": 31042201.0, "trend": 37.700437, "fair_value": 40.650222, "relative_strength": -6.454292, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 41.285748, "energy": 52.29016, "activity_lines": [ 40.716667, 39.571091, 37.17826, 36.962973 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }