{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b1f4629a-7b39-421f-9eab-1d3d7cab1804", "symbol": "IBE7", "name": "iShares V PLC - iShares iBonds Dec 2027 Term \u20ac Corp UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 46.825, "architecture_energy": 54.835, "architecture_maturity": 8.239, "architecture_confidence": 51.662, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.97, "rotation_up": 66.26, "upward_expansion": 60.48, "deceleration": 22.78, "rotation_down": 20.02, "downward_expansion": 18.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.136067, 5.132795, 5.12637, 5.12551 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 5.142, "trend_reference": 5.12668, "distance_from_trend": 0.002988, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.98348, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.031809, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -14.066967, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.000274, "excess_performance": -0.170618, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.002988, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000793, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.031809, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004261, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.14067, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017921, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.000274, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.827806, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 91047, "relative_activity": 1.729258, "balance": 3.827806, "dry_up": 1.449705, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.002057, "annualized_volatility": 0.015015, "from_high_reference": -0.003384, "from_low_reference": 0.012547 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.12668, "fair_value_reference": 4.98348, "structural_low": 5.094103, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": 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5.12341 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.132, "volume": 46285, "typical_volume": 44756.05, "trend": 5.125827, "fair_value": 4.981258, "relative_strength": -11.903297, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 24.523078, "energy": 43.332053, "activity_lines": [ 5.131, 5.128222, 5.122924, 5.123836 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.136, "volume": 135801, "typical_volume": 51117.45, "trend": 5.126236, "fair_value": 4.982356, "relative_strength": -12.028022, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 30.284921, "energy": 42.963136, "activity_lines": [ 5.1328, 5.130172, 5.124388, 5.124493 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.142, "volume": 91047, "typical_volume": 52650.9, "trend": 5.12668, "fair_value": 4.98348, "relative_strength": -14.066967, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 46.82472, "energy": 54.834737, "activity_lines": [ 5.136067, 5.132795, 5.12637, 5.12551 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }