{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b1f9eadd-ab0a-424c-9073-0a7f7444553d", "symbol": "NATO", "name": "Future of Defence UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 82.406, "architecture_energy": 63.86, "architecture_maturity": 29.19, "architecture_confidence": 76.151, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.59, "rotation_up": 69.74, "upward_expansion": 87.02, "deceleration": 45.87, "rotation_down": 14.77, "downward_expansion": 11.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.505467, 18.242182, 17.868495, 17.632959 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 19.43, "trend_reference": 17.427933, "distance_from_trend": 0.114877, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.782231, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.520079, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.033045, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.16431, "excess_performance": -0.006582, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.114877, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042154, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.520079, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.159159, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.01033, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0926, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.16431, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.435092, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 106060, "relative_activity": 0.933234, "balance": 3.435092, "dry_up": 0.713529, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.041957, "annualized_volatility": 0.268129, "from_high_reference": -0.007255, "from_low_reference": 0.306482 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.427933, "fair_value_reference": 12.782231, "structural_low": 16.091999, 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"modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.087756, "energy": 54.353258, "activity_lines": [ 18.059733, 17.962727, 17.613057, 17.454138 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.004, "volume": 103665, "typical_volume": 118394.1, "trend": 17.366467, "fair_value": 12.703699, "relative_strength": -5.604507, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.691619, "energy": 35.112572, "activity_lines": [ 18.074533, 17.974363, 17.673543, 17.499828 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.43, "volume": 106060, "typical_volume": 113647.85, "trend": 17.427933, "fair_value": 12.782231, "relative_strength": -1.033045, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.406325, "energy": 63.860383, "activity_lines": [ 18.505467, 18.242182, 17.868495, 17.632959 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }