{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b1fc7388-0ef9-481f-b19b-a316d7201490", "symbol": "MKL", "name": "Markel Group Inc.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.496, "architecture_energy": 61.966, "architecture_maturity": 93.613, "architecture_confidence": 64.733, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.72, "rotation_up": 28.0, "upward_expansion": 22.5, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 45.63, "downward_expansion": 55.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 32270.0, 32270.0, 32269.294271, 32998.985173 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 32270.0, "trend_reference": 34244.758529, "distance_from_trend": -0.057666, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 31160.553511, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.035604, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.46203, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.126658, "excess_performance": -0.071991, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.057666, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052767, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.035604, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009883, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.11462, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.106653, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.126658, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.555556, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 4.555556, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.002135, "annualized_volatility": 0.201486, "from_high_reference": -0.17888, "from_low_reference": 0.018492 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 34244.758529, "fair_value_reference": 31160.553511, "structural_low": 31684.099609, 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-12.587766, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.999824, "energy": 83.549571, "activity_lines": [ 32270.0, 32248.838175, 32504.50998, 33464.541259 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 32270.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 18.5, "trend": 34675.373112, "fair_value": 31073.758639, "relative_strength": -11.75585, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.999554, "energy": 83.548914, "activity_lines": [ 32270.0, 32264.745455, 32403.819029, 33295.465104 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32270.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 18.5, "trend": 34460.06582, "fair_value": 31117.156075, "relative_strength": -11.955466, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.498704, "energy": 85.121846, "activity_lines": [ 32270.0, 32270.0, 32325.413793, 33140.279742 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32270.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 18.5, "trend": 34244.758529, "fair_value": 31160.553511, "relative_strength": -11.46203, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.496174, "energy": 61.965733, "activity_lines": [ 32270.0, 32270.0, 32269.294271, 32998.985173 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }