{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b206f44b-07dd-44e7-b96d-05adcc0ec798", "symbol": "600525", "name": "ChangYuan Technology Group Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -20.224, "architecture_energy": 27.517, "architecture_maturity": 37.172, "architecture_confidence": 44.221, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.07, "rotation_up": 24.79, "upward_expansion": 14.64, "deceleration": 46.22, "rotation_down": 44.94, "downward_expansion": 46.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.925333, 4.960364, 5.054048, 5.095677 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 5.09, "trend_reference": 5.043, "distance_from_trend": 0.00932, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.500577, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.130966, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 16.884001, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.113786, "excess_performance": 0.156989, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.00932, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.099891, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.130966, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.061237, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.16884, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036848, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.113786, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.887548, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 59324765, "relative_activity": 1.153209, "balance": 0.887548, "dry_up": 0.941921, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.079039, "annualized_volatility": 0.353395, "from_high_reference": -0.166939, "from_low_reference": 0.626198 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.043, "fair_value_reference": 4.500577, "structural_low": 4.31, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.049116, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.384615, "median_excess_return": 0.002401, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.063584, "worst_return": -0.143418, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.055479, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.007009, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.051724, "worst_return": -0.198428, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.151242, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.072474, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.055133, "worst_return": -0.357564, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 12.269743, "energy": 8.331632, "activity_lines": [ 5.09, 5.112727, 5.182333, 5.112065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.77, "volume": 52234907, "typical_volume": 64501078.35, "trend": 4.916, "fair_value": 4.511987, "relative_strength": 16.842909, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -5.857726, "energy": 9.017894, "activity_lines": [ 4.994667, 5.046364, 5.136524, 5.105398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.7, "volume": 50285680, "typical_volume": 58367296.55, "trend": 4.953667, "fair_value": 4.505449, "relative_strength": 13.008092, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.303678, "energy": 22.653411, "activity_lines": [ 4.890667, 4.968909, 5.085905, 5.091462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.92, "volume": 31976472, "typical_volume": 52733705.75, "trend": 4.991, "fair_value": 4.501795, "relative_strength": 16.980299, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.921715, "energy": 30.306829, "activity_lines": [ 4.878667, 4.943455, 5.060238, 5.08929 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.09, "volume": 59324765, "typical_volume": 51443208.75, "trend": 5.043, "fair_value": 4.500577, "relative_strength": 16.884001, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.223727, "energy": 27.516698, "activity_lines": [ 4.925333, 4.960364, 5.054048, 5.095677 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }