{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b20dc982-016d-4c5b-b139-339a2dfee517", "symbol": "2543", "name": "Hwang Chang General Contractor Co., Ltd", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.829, "architecture_energy": 47.403, "architecture_maturity": 87.524, "architecture_confidence": 80.888, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.55, "rotation_up": 28.34, "upward_expansion": 12.23, "deceleration": 59.93, "rotation_down": 47.55, "downward_expansion": 76.56 }, "activity_lines": [ 38.115729, 38.18872, 40.433171, 44.508456 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 38.900002, "trend_reference": 50.052896, "distance_from_trend": -0.222822, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 46.623797, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.165662, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -53.147567, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.338883, "excess_performance": -0.780255, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.222822, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.125783, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.165662, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 7e-05, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.531476, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.089052, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.338883, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.280073, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6506453, "relative_activity": 0.574411, "balance": 1.280073, "dry_up": 0.576189, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.115947, "annualized_volatility": 0.66413, "from_high_reference": -0.509833, "from_low_reference": 0.128282 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 50.052896, "fair_value_reference": 46.623797, "structural_low": 34.477205, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.027687, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": -0.040057, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.104839, "worst_return": -0.132653, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.110899, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.088325, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.25641, "worst_return": -0.193312, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.074545, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.220381, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.142509, "worst_return": 0.006581, "sufficient": false }, { 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46.186325, "relative_strength": -55.484755, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.551338, "energy": 61.316895, "activity_lines": [ 37.018826, 38.604391, 41.556969, 46.064981 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 39.25, "volume": 5879053, "typical_volume": 11699291.8, "trend": 50.81157, "fair_value": 46.405908, "relative_strength": -51.863463, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.811822, "energy": 52.397972, "activity_lines": [ 37.663133, 38.379369, 40.953748, 45.276944 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 38.900002, "volume": 6506453, "typical_volume": 11327173.8, "trend": 50.052896, "fair_value": 46.623797, "relative_strength": -53.147567, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.828865, "energy": 47.402769, "activity_lines": [ 38.115729, 38.18872, 40.433171, 44.508456 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }