{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b20ebc28-e70b-408e-a037-6668e6830f3e", "symbol": "300368", "name": "Hebei Huijin Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -44.187, "architecture_energy": 31.206, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 85.164, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.04, "rotation_up": 26.9, "upward_expansion": 16.31, "deceleration": 46.98, "rotation_down": 36.55, "downward_expansion": 66.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.781333, 8.573636, 9.181333, 9.821462 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 9.27, "trend_reference": 10.853333, "distance_from_trend": -0.145885, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.114808, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.142356, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -32.185992, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.283063, "excess_performance": -0.290462, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.145885, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.173457, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.142356, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.439786, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.32186, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.101382, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.283063, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.192619, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 188119600, "relative_activity": 1.547547, "balance": 1.192619, "dry_up": 1.736848, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.126297, "annualized_volatility": 0.506476, "from_high_reference": -0.556883, "from_low_reference": 0.333813 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.853333, "fair_value_reference": 8.114808, "structural_low": 6.95, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.032957, "positive_rate": 0.387097, "directional_follow_through": 0.612903, "median_excess_return": -0.010992, "regime_survival": 0.870968, "best_return": 0.381271, "worst_return": -0.475687, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.140073, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.088691, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.668085, "worst_return": -0.484649, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.159728, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.069226, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.910638, "worst_return": -0.637346, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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10.263247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.5, "volume": 315843008, "typical_volume": 108167712.9, "trend": 11.237667, "fair_value": 8.092179, "relative_strength": -36.232945, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.210133, "energy": 55.070056, "activity_lines": [ 8.135333, 8.410364, 9.321143, 10.073548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.11, "volume": 227374169, "typical_volume": 116119231.35, "trend": 11.049667, "fair_value": 8.101218, "relative_strength": -30.219861, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.235313, "energy": 44.455768, "activity_lines": [ 8.456667, 8.461636, 9.237048, 9.93628 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.27, "volume": 188119600, "typical_volume": 121559824.7, "trend": 10.853333, "fair_value": 8.114808, "relative_strength": -32.185992, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.187098, "energy": 31.206474, "activity_lines": [ 8.781333, 8.573636, 9.181333, 9.821462 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }