{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b2124198-1445-471d-9470-bce606af2687", "symbol": "LVO", "name": "LiveOne Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 88.806, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -31.194, "architecture_energy": 44.3, "architecture_maturity": 17.748, "architecture_confidence": 83.916, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.56, "rotation_up": 14.87, "upward_expansion": 21.83, "deceleration": 52.63, "rotation_down": 67.99, "downward_expansion": 51.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.629333, 5.093818, 5.409905, 5.368022 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 4.22, "trend_reference": 5.254333, "distance_from_trend": -0.196853, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.769488, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.568043, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.758017, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.169291, "excess_performance": -0.356745, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.196853, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053465, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.568043, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.064339, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.27758, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047573, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.169291, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.441099, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 225640, "relative_activity": 0.648881, "balance": 0.441099, "dry_up": 0.683451, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.253915, "annualized_volatility": 0.609505, "from_high_reference": -0.413889, "from_low_reference": 0.140541 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.254333, "fair_value_reference": 9.769488, "structural_low": 3.98, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.034014, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.037832, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.045806, "worst_return": -0.087113, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.067368, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.068681, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.453671, "worst_return": -0.498156, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.552632, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.366029, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.039322, "worst_return": -0.148936, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"blue", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.151261, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.025, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.210873, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.144522, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.240908, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.203137, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.337187, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.145015, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.143403, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 16.1, "volume": 1265688, "typical_volume": 1654571.9, "trend": 13.7378, "fair_value": 20.520949, "relative_strength": 28.824895, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.797088, "energy": 34.455264, 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4.48, "volume": 270067, "typical_volume": 357197.1, "trend": 5.250667, "fair_value": 9.85077, "relative_strength": -20.299791, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.508554, "energy": 28.393237, "activity_lines": [ 4.924667, 5.36, 5.526619, 5.434516 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.22, "volume": 225640, "typical_volume": 347737.3, "trend": 5.254333, "fair_value": 9.769488, "relative_strength": -27.758017, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.193637, "energy": 44.299513, "activity_lines": [ 4.629333, 5.093818, 5.409905, 5.368022 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }