{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b2125623-bf59-45e3-ac3d-3671d8bc45df", "symbol": "TCX", "name": "Tucows Inc.", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -27.72, "architecture_energy": 24.376, "architecture_maturity": 85.173, "architecture_confidence": 92.566, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.38, "rotation_up": 31.1, "upward_expansion": 19.55, "deceleration": 41.25, "rotation_down": 37.45, "downward_expansion": 67.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.174667, 12.827818, 13.574571, 14.473957 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 15.68, "trend_reference": 16.1775, "distance_from_trend": -0.030753, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 19.059519, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.177314, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -23.824677, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.271037, "excess_performance": -0.45849, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.030753, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.154405, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.177314, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.07221, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.238247, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.109955, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.271037, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.051985, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 535685, "relative_activity": 2.170389, "balance": 1.051985, "dry_up": 2.585036, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.13074, "annualized_volatility": 1.013375, "from_high_reference": -0.377036, "from_low_reference": 0.853428 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.1775, "fair_value_reference": 19.059519, "structural_low": 8.46, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": -0.003571, "positive_rate": 0.484848, "directional_follow_through": 0.515152, "median_excess_return": -0.003565, "regime_survival": 0.848485, "best_return": 0.602924, "worst_return": -0.375179, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.018325, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.039838, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.365854, "worst_return": -0.291182, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.090642, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.253424, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.160272, "worst_return": -0.4953, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.130487, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.25587, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.285891, "worst_return": -0.616543, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.03948, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.061493, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.116086, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.254332, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.011047, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.138498, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.14853, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.050754, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.079854, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.04283, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.098605, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.03358, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.094701, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.120337, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 20.12, "volume": 218645, "typical_volume": 397637.4, "trend": 26.596, "fair_value": 58.51375, "relative_strength": -45.499743, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", 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"typical_volume": 187882.15, "trend": 16.657833, "fair_value": 19.145737, "relative_strength": -55.898564, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -90.437018, "energy": 94.983443, "activity_lines": [ 10.525333, 11.820545, 13.36119, 14.601441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.44, "volume": 1048810, "typical_volume": 229931.45, "trend": 16.438167, "fair_value": 19.090288, "relative_strength": -21.860561, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.093977, "energy": 48.287834, "activity_lines": [ 11.86, 12.306182, 13.45569, 14.522871 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.68, "volume": 535685, "typical_volume": 246815.2, "trend": 16.1775, "fair_value": 19.059519, "relative_strength": -23.824677, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.720268, "energy": 24.375502, "activity_lines": [ 13.174667, 12.827818, 13.574571, 14.473957 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }