{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b215644c-4ea5-457f-8ab2-06142e63754b", "symbol": "GDMA", "name": "GADSDEN DYNAMIC MULTI-ASSET ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 64.891, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 49.573, "architecture_energy": 22.842, "architecture_maturity": 10.22, "architecture_confidence": 48.44, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.41, "rotation_up": 39.6, "upward_expansion": 70.19, "deceleration": 64.56, "rotation_down": 25.33, "downward_expansion": 6.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 42.19026, 42.109762, 41.92094, 41.788724 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 42.6883, "trend_reference": 41.686173, "distance_from_trend": 0.02404, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 33.402912, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.277981, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.503903, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.027126, "excess_performance": -0.098498, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.02404, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031638, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.277981, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031717, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.045039, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039126, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.027126, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.490747, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 69183, "relative_activity": 0.912124, "balance": 0.490747, "dry_up": 1.695347, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.033716, "annualized_volatility": 0.138426, "from_high_reference": -0.030693, "from_low_reference": 0.235795 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 41.686173, "fair_value_reference": 33.402912, "structural_low": 39.55, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.000699, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.007837, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.037355, "worst_return": -0.029783, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.031822, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.016384, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.079884, "worst_return": -0.01863, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.012162, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.02436, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.187031, "worst_return": -0.023735, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"typical_volume": 71680.0, "trend": 41.482637, "fair_value": 33.204065, "relative_strength": -3.026203, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.574154, "energy": 13.713004, "activity_lines": [ 41.59912, 41.818124, 41.717271, 41.645314 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 42.6201, "volume": 79417, "typical_volume": 73965.65, "trend": 41.602897, "fair_value": 33.303433, "relative_strength": -1.312714, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.543752, "energy": 15.861851, "activity_lines": [ 41.888993, 41.969835, 41.820116, 41.718698 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 42.6883, "volume": 69183, "typical_volume": 75848.2, "trend": 41.686173, "fair_value": 33.402912, "relative_strength": -4.503903, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.572775, "energy": 22.841842, "activity_lines": [ 42.19026, 42.109762, 41.92094, 41.788724 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }