{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b2174fd4-1c48-4709-9a42-de1022fe4137", "symbol": "000682", "name": "Dongfang Electronics Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 57.655, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.572, "architecture_energy": 45.537, "architecture_maturity": 10.653, "architecture_confidence": 82.49, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.88, "rotation_up": 15.16, "upward_expansion": 7.4, "deceleration": 44.27, "rotation_down": 58.96, "downward_expansion": 80.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.920667, 12.053644, 12.464377, 12.686296 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 12.19, "trend_reference": 12.942862, "distance_from_trend": -0.058168, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.544518, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.156051, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.914429, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.073708, "excess_performance": -0.081108, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.058168, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006235, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.156051, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.155391, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.049144, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017288, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.073708, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.74931, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 108051872, "relative_activity": 1.001067, "balance": 1.74931, "dry_up": 0.961966, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.080236, "annualized_volatility": 0.324721, "from_high_reference": -0.212532, "from_low_reference": 0.187421 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.942862, "fair_value_reference": 10.544518, "structural_low": 11.36, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.033515, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.021158, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.351778, "worst_return": -0.04499, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.095311, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.088069, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.585895, "worst_return": -0.019895, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.428571, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.439694, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.583902, "worst_return": 0.091644, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.39887, "energy": 45.601903, "activity_lines": [ 12.335639, 12.646253, 12.862869, 12.974648 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.45, "volume": 99639760, "typical_volume": 119605493.65, "trend": 12.932196, "fair_value": 10.491635, "relative_strength": -7.251864, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.133119, "energy": 66.774586, "activity_lines": [ 12.020988, 12.383237, 12.708794, 12.877581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.66, "volume": 112680410, "typical_volume": 116139418.9, "trend": 12.930862, "fair_value": 10.508684, "relative_strength": -5.811645, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.334151, "energy": 65.959985, "activity_lines": [ 11.829564, 12.194585, 12.587242, 12.795504 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.98, "volume": 94953694, "typical_volume": 108639374.2, "trend": 12.931862, "fair_value": 10.526432, "relative_strength": -1.70134, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.089889, "energy": 58.862516, "activity_lines": [ 11.82121, 12.089024, 12.510595, 12.734158 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.19, "volume": 108051872, "typical_volume": 107936662.65, "trend": 12.942862, "fair_value": 10.544518, "relative_strength": -4.914429, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.572473, "energy": 45.537324, "activity_lines": [ 11.920667, 12.053644, 12.464377, 12.686296 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }